SpaceX shares face volatility as index additions and lockup events near

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
SpaceX shares face volatility

Highlights

SpaceX shares surge as much as 67% since June 12 debut, then fall 35% before rebounding 5% to $162.80 amid Nasdaq tech weakness.
FTSE Russell index inclusion on Friday could trigger $2.68 billion in passive inflows, with Nasdaq 100 inclusion set for July 6 and IPO quiet period expiring July 7.
Options data show a 40% probability of SpaceX trading below $130 by mid-September, with puts outnumbering calls for contracts expiring July-September amid phased insider lockup releases.

Upcoming trading catalysts for SpaceX stock

As reported by Reuters, SpaceX shares swing sharply on Tuesday, briefly dropping below their first-day opening price before rebounding as the broader tech sector weakens. The stock rises as much as 67% since trading begins on June 12 and then falls 35% from that peak, moves analysts say are unlikely by themselves to signal a fundamental reassessment of the company’s prospects after its record $75 billion IPO.

Shares are later up 5% at $162.80 after earlier touching $147.11 during a wider Nasdaq selloff. Bespoke Investment Group says holding these levels would be seen as an encouraging test, while a break lower could point to a broader shift in sentiment toward high-flying parts of the market.

Several scheduled events are expected to shape trading in the coming days and weeks. SpaceX is due to join Russell indexes on Friday as part of FTSE Russell's regular reconstitution, a move analysts say could bring $2.68 billion of passive inflows; the company is also scheduled for its 13th Starship flight on June 29, an expected Nasdaq 100 inclusion on July 6, and the end of the IPO quiet period on July 7, when major investment banks involved in the offering can begin publishing research.

Options positioning and selling risks in focus

SpaceX’s expected inclusion in ETFs such as the Invesco QQQ Trust and iShares Russell 1000 ETF is already anticipated by the market, but those funds still have to buy shares on the day of inclusion. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research and editorial at TMX VettaFi, says that requirement should provide some demand because index funds cannot move far in advance in the way active managers or individual investors can.

In the options market, early bullish enthusiasm gives way to more defensive positioning as some traders prepare for the stock to fall below its IPO price in coming months. Data cited from Susquehanna Financial Group show traders assign about a 40% probability that SpaceX trades below $130 by mid-September, while LSEG figures indicate contracts expiring from July through September with strike prices from $125 to $190 show nearly two puts for every open call, suggesting heavier hedging activity.

The recent retreat in SpaceX shares comes alongside the biggest tech pullback in several weeks, with Nvidia slipping back below $5 trillion in market value and the Nasdaq composite losing hundreds of billions of dollars. Analysts and investors also focus on future selling pressure because, unlike many newly listed companies that broadly restrict insider sales for roughly six months, SpaceX allows some exceptions and plans a phased release of locked-up shares tied partly to company performance and stock-price targets, meaning some holders could be able to sell soon after the company reports its first quarterly earnings if conditions are met.

In our earlier article on SpaceX’s AI-compute leasing business, we covered Reflection AI’s agreement to pay SpaceX $150 million per month for access to advanced Nvidia GB300 capacity at the Colossus 2 data center. We noted the deal could run through 2029 and underscores how SpaceX is turning excess computing capacity into a recurring revenue line alongside its core aerospace operations.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.