US Dollar vs Philippine Peso holds steady as U.S. Treasury authorizes Iranian oil sales with USD payments

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US Dollar vs Peso rises 0.5% today

Highlights

U.S. Treasury authorization for Iranian oil sales boosts global USD flows as sanctioned trades settle in dollars.
Increased USD demand from these trades supports continued upward momentum in the US Dollar versus Philippine Peso.
USD/PHP shows a bullish trend with price near session highs; range of PHP61.07–PHP61.69 expected over 2–3 days and downside risk is minimal.

Expanded oil-related dollar flows drive renewed demand for USD

The U.S. Treasury Department's authorization of Iranian oil sales through August, as reported by Cnbc, directly impacts global foreign exchange flows by enabling payments to Tehran in U.S. dollars. This regulatory action expands the usage of the USD for sanctioned oil trades, increasing transactional demand and influencing dollar liquidity worldwide. Such a shift in settlement mechanisms supports higher demand for the USD and contributes to recent upward momentum in the US Dollar vs Philippine Peso pairing.

Mixed technical signals as bullish bias meets diverging trend strength

USD/PHP is currently trading above the MA-20 at PHP61.24 and the MA-50 at PHP61.09 on the hourly chart, with the price also sitting above the longer-term MA-200 at PHP59.65 on the daily chart. Immediate support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of PHP61.15. For technical indicators, MACD signals a Buy, while ADX points to a Sell, showing a divergence in trend strength. The RSI, at 58.79, along with the CCI, both indicate Buy signals; Stoch RSI is Neutral, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. BBP readings confirm buyers are dominating intraday momentum, and the Awesome Oscillator remains supportive of the prevailing bullish tone.

Bullish bias prevails with consolidation risk near volatility band

Over the next 2–3 trading days, USD/PHP is expected to consolidate within the PHP61.07 to PHP61.69 range, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The predominant scenario sees price action holding above key support and trending toward the upper range limit. A bullish breakout above resistance would open further upside, while a decline below PHP61.15 could spark a deeper corrective move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the recent U.S. Treasury decision as a key driver supporting near-term USD demand against the Philippine Peso. He notes underlying momentum is still constructive, with technicals confirming buyers' control above major moving averages. However, he remains guarded given the divergence in trend strength and the risk of a push below PHP61.15. "Price action favors consolidation and a cautious bullish bias, but I remain defensive until we see a convincing breakout above resistance," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PHP had established a clear bullish bias amid strong trend alignment, with traders watching for signs of sustained upward momentum. The latest developments—namely, the U.S. authorization of Iranian oil sales increasing global USD flows—add a fundamental tailwind to the pair's technical strength, making a decisive move above PHP61.69 resistance a pivotal event for capturing further gains.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.