Nvidia shares weakening as RSI transitions to neutral-bullish territory: weekly review

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Nvidia falls 4.49% this week

Highlights

Nvidia is trading near strong medium- and long-term technical support with a bullish structural bias indicated by major averages.
Despite bullish momentum from MACD and ADX, short-term oscillators flag fading strength and an overbought condition after a 4.49% weekly pullback.
Price is expected to oscillate between $188.00 support and $212.00 resistance, with a 75% probability of an upward move next week.

AI product launches and insider selling shape sentiment this week

Nvidia has continued its expansion in advanced computing by launching the Vera Rubin supercomputing platform for AI and high-performance computing applications and introducing the BioNeMo Agent Toolkit, which supports life sciences research through industry adoption. The company also announced new partnerships in South Korea focused on securing memory chip supplies to advance its AI strategy. Additionally, Director Mark A Stevens sold 885,000 shares valued at approximately $186 million, while maintaining considerable holdings within the company.

Mixed momentum as price tests range support and bullish trend persists

On the weekly chart, Nvidia remains above key moving averages with the MA-20 providing near-term dynamic support at $195.53, while MA-50 at $187.50 and MA-200 at $103.90 confirm underlying bullish structure. Recent weekly action saw price move to the bottom of its range, hovering near support amid 6.99% volatility. Weekly indicators show mixed momentum: the MACD is bullish and ADX signals a positive trend, but oscillators like Stochastic RSI and CCI reflect waning strength, and RSI has moved into neutral-bullish territory. Bull/Bear Power is indicating overbought conditions, aligning with increased buyer pressure despite the recent decline.

Sideways bias and breakout risk as indicators favor further upside

For the next 5 trading days, Nvidia is expected to fluctuate between $188.00 and $212.00, mirroring current weekly volatility. Based on W1 indicators, there is a 75% probability the price will move higher against a 25% chance of further decline, given 3 of 4 major momentum signals remain on Buy or Strong Buy. The baseline scenario calls for sideways movement between the established support and resistance. Should Nvidia break above $212.00, upside potential could be renewed, while a drop below $188.00 may prompt additional downside pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes Nvidia dropped 4.49% this week, holding just above medium-term support at $195.53. He sees the technical structure as still bullish, but pressure is building at the lower boundary of the established range. Momentum readings remain mixed, suggesting buyers are cautious despite a 75% probability of further upside. Fundamentals highlight Nvidia’s robust expansion in AI partnerships and product launches, but insider selling raises some concerns about sentiment. Kharitonov believes sideways or choppy action is likely as long as $188.00 holds as support. "If Nvidia breaks below $188.00 this week, I would treat any rebound with skepticism until clear strength returns above $212.00."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia's stock remained vulnerable to sector-wide volatility and increased profit-taking following an extended rally. With recent technicals indicating lingering overbought conditions alongside ongoing innovation and strategic partnerships, traders should closely monitor shifts in weekly momentum for an early signal of a decisive breakout or deeper correction.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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