Narrow range for Bank of Nova Scotia stock as C$120.23

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Bank of Nova Scotia slides 0.9% today

Highlights

Mulvihill's launch of the Mulvihill Canadian Bank ETF introduces new ETF-driven flows into Bank of Nova Scotia shares.
Despite added ETF exposure potentially supporting liquidity, BNS remains pressured by persistent sector-wide selling.
Technicals indicate continued short-term weakness, with BNS/CAD likely to consolidate between C$120.23 and C$122.91 barring a breakout.

ETF inclusion as driver for BNS liquidity amidst selling pressure

Mulvihill launched the Mulvihill Canadian Bank ETF, establishing the Bank of Nova Scotia as a principal holding, according to Globenewswire. The inclusion of BNS in this fund structure connects the stock to new streams of ETF-driven investment flows, supporting liquidity and facilitating secondary market activity. This development may provide incremental exposure for BNS, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum and resistance indicated by technical signals

Technically, BNS is trading below the MA-20 at C$123.37 and the MA-50 at C$121.92 on the hourly chart, suggesting ongoing short- and medium-term resistance. The price remains above the daily MA-200 at C$100, indicating that the long-term bullish structure is intact. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at C$123.2. Momentum indicators paint a weak picture: the MACD is neutral, ADX registers a Sell bias, and the RSI sits at 42.8, pointing toward continued seller control. Stoch RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all flag the stock as oversold, confirming dominance by sellers in the near term, while the Awesome Oscillator further supports negative momentum.

Consolidation favored as downside risk outweighs potential rebound

Over the next several days, BNS is expected to fluctuate between C$120.23 and C$122.91, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of an upside move is estimated at 45%, with a 55% chance of further declines, suggesting a consolidation scenario is most likely in the near term. A move above C$123.2 would be required to trigger a more bullish response, while a break below C$120.23 could result in accelerating downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Bank of Nova Scotia facing technical headwinds, with prices locked below short- and medium-term moving averages despite long-term support. He notes that the Mulvihill ETF launch introduces fresh ETF-driven flows, but market sentiment and momentum remain negative. The base case remains range-bound, with a higher chance of further weakness if C$120.23 is breached. "Until buyers reclaim C$123.2, I remain cautious and expect sideways or lower action in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that the Bank of Nova Scotia stock was exhibiting persistent short-term volatility and seller pressure, although its long-term outlook remained constructive. Recent developments, including ETF-driven flows and continued technical weakness, highlight the importance of monitoring the C$120.23 downside level, as a break below this threshold could accelerate negative momentum in the days ahead.

Source of Data: BNS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.