Toyota narrows U.S. sales gap with GM as hybrid demand strengthens

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Toyota narrows U.S. sales gap

Highlights

Toyota is projected to increase U.S. sales nearly 1% to 1.25 million vehicles while GM is set to drop 7.2% to 1.33 million, narrowing their gap to 83,255 units.
Toyota's continued focus on hybrid vehicles versus GM's full-electric strategy drives its sales momentum, reflecting shifting consumer demand toward hybrids.
Cox Automotive forecasts total U.S. new vehicle sales to fall 3% and EV sales to drop 23.3% in the first half, challenging automakers with all-electric lineups.

First-half forecast points to tighter competition

Cox Automotive said in a forecast released Wednesday that Toyota is expected to post a nearly 1% increase in U.S. sales through the first half of this year, reaching 1.25 million vehicles. GM is projected to decline 7.2% to 1.33 million vehicles, leaving an expected difference of 83,255 units between the two companies.

Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist and senior director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, said current selling rates suggest GM may face a closer battle by year-end if Toyota maintains its momentum. He stops short of forecasting that Toyota will overtake GM, but says the trend is concerning for the Detroit automaker.

The projected first-half gap would be the smallest between the two manufacturers since 2021, when Toyota surpassed GM in U.S. sales for the first time. That result was partly driven by supply chain disruptions during the coronavirus pandemic.

Hybrid strategy gains industry attention

Toyota's advance comes as it continues launching new models, including battery electric vehicles, while maintaining a strong focus on hybrids, a segment where it has held a leadership position for decades. GM, by contrast, invests heavily in fully electric vehicles rather than hybrids, which it has at times described as a transitional technology.

GM's only hybrid model is a Corvette, while its electric lineup includes Cadillac luxury vehicles as well as multiple models under other brands. Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of industry insights at Cox Automotive, says hybrids are currently benefiting from a favorable shift in consumer demand.

Cox expects total U.S. new vehicle sales to fall 3% in the first half of the year from a year earlier, including a 0.5% decline in the second quarter. The firm also forecasts EV sales to drop 23.3% during the first half, underscoring the weaker adoption trend affecting automakers with heavier all-electric exposure.

In our earlier article on Slate Auto’s low-cost electric pickup launch, we covered the startup opening preorders for a $24,950 modular EV and touting more than 180,000 reservations ahead of planned first deliveries in Q4 2025. The piece also highlighted Slate’s push to make each vehicle gross-margin positive while targeting positive cash flow and EBITDA by 2027 as it raises capital and builds out production capacity.

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