Nvidia stock price forecast: $186.97 support in focus as NVDA falls 2.24%

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Nvidia drops 2.24% as China curbs

Highlights

Nvidia's CEO affirmed compliance with U.S. national security mandates, rejecting sales or support for smuggled AI chips into China.
China's government is increasing restrictions on Nvidia chip usage, intensifying compliance risks and further reducing demand from domestic firms.
NVDA/USD trades under short- and medium-term moving averages with downside momentum; expected range is $186.97 to $204.37 and sellers remain dominant.

Black market surge as regulatory clampdown restricts China sales

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang stated that the company would prioritize U.S. national security over commercial opportunities, explicitly rejecting the viability of smuggled AI data centers in China, according to CNBC. The firm has faced a ban on legal AI chip sales to China, fueling a black market with over $1 billion worth of smuggled chips and driving up GPU rack prices by 50% above U.S. levels, as reported by Cryptobriefing and Investing. Additionally, Chinese authorities have warned domestic firms against purchasing even officially cleared Nvidia hardware, creating heightened compliance risks and further constraining demand, as detailed by Startupfortune.

Bearish momentum as technical signals diverge after sharp drop

NVDA is trading below its 20-period ($205.63) and 50-period ($211.84) moving averages on the four-hour chart, while still above the 200-period daily moving average at $190.4. The immediate resistance stands near the Ichimoku Kijun level at $205.74. On the momentum side, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator both indicate Sell signals, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is Neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 39.52, suggesting a bearish momentum, while Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power signal oversold and seller-dominated market conditions. Conversely, the Stochastic RSI flashes a Strong Buy, showing short-term divergence in indicators. Today’s sharp drop and elevated volatility reinforce prevailing negative sentiment.

Downside risk prevails as volatility defines short-term range

Over the next two to three sessions, NVDA is expected to trade within a volatility band of $186.97 to $204.37. The probability of further downside is elevated at 74%, making countertrend rallies unlikely under present conditions. A move above $205.74 would be needed to shift the outlook to bullish, while a sustained break below $186.97 would confirm a bearish continuation. If the price stays within this range, consolidation and sideways movement may prevail in the short term.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia under pressure from U.S. regulatory priorities and tightened access to the Chinese AI market. He notes the bearish technical structure, with key short- and medium-term averages now above the current price and sentiment weighed down by negative momentum signals. The range between $186.97 and $204.37 will be critical for the next moves, but overall, he remains constructive given Nvidia’s long-term strength and leadership in AI. He believes regulatory headwinds could spur innovation and resilience. "If NVDA can hold above $186.97 and reclaim $205.74, I see room for a constructive rebound despite short-term volatility."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia's shares were under persistent downward pressure amid oversold technical conditions and institutional repositioning. The latest escalation in regulatory headwinds and deepening bearish momentum reinforces the downside risk, with traders advised to monitor for any renewed volatility should the current support levels be breached.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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