US Dollar vs Polish Zloty moves higher after holding above all major moving averages

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Us dollar vs zloty rises 0.53% today

Highlights

USD/PLN remains firmly in a bullish trend, trading above key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages.
Momentum indicators support further gains, with MACD and ADX confirming upward bias, while short-term oscillators show mixed signals.
The pair is expected to consolidate between zł3.7829 and zł3.8209 over the next five sessions, with a 75% probability of an upward move.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that USD/PLN remains in a defined bullish trend but warns against overconfidence. He points out that the pair trades above all key moving averages, yet a deeply oversold Stochastic RSI signals potential exhaustion. Kharitonov stresses the lack of clear news catalysts and sees technical signals as vulnerable to sudden reversals. He cautions that prolonged buyer control increases risk if price fails to maintain momentum near zł3.802. "In these conditions, chasing the rally without a protective plan may expose traders to sharp corrections," he states.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights that the bullish structure for USD/PLN remains intact on all timeframes. He sees clear evidence of sustained demand, citing robust technical alignment and strong buy signals from momentum indicators. Although short-term news is absent, Karapetjanc believes positive sentiment persists. "Further growth is expected while the pair holds above zł3.7829 — this market offers multiple setups for bullish positioning," he asserts.

Technical supports and overbought signals reinforce sustained upward trend

USD/PLN is trading above its 20-day moving average (zł3.7848), 50-day (zł3.7344), and 200-day (zł3.6513) moving averages, indicating strong bullish bias in the short-, medium-, and long-term trends. Immediate resistance stands at zł3.802, while the 20-day moving average at zł3.7848 serves as support. A bullish alignment between the 50- and 200-day moving averages affirms the underlying uptrend. Momentum indicators reinforce the positive outlook: the MACD and ADX both issue bullish 'Buy' and 'Strong Buy' signals. The RSI reads 57.77, reflecting moderate momentum, but the Stochastic RSI is deeply oversold at 10.81, highlighting near-term divergence. The Bull/Bear Power (BBP) indicator shows buyers remain dominant. Intraday, the pair trades near session highs with moderate volatility amplitude of 0.68%, and upward momentum is firm.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN was exhibiting sustained bullish momentum underpinned by strong technical signals. The current analysis not only reaffirms this bullish structure but highlights emerging near-term divergence in momentum indicators, making the risk of a potential short-term pullback an important consideration for traders monitoring the prevailing uptrend.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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