USD/KRW resistance test at ₩1,415: Breakout levels to watch

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US Dollar vs South Korean Won drops 0.5%

Highlights

USD/KRW trades below key short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, indicating persistent selling pressure across all timeframes.
Most momentum indicators support a bearish view, though some short-term oscillators suggest potential for a brief rebound attempt.
Near-term price is expected to fluctuate between ₩1,404 and ₩1,418, with a 77% probability of further downside movement.

Bearish momentum as multiple indicators confirm selling pressure

On the hourly chart, USD/KRW remains below the MA-20 at ₩1,416 and MA-50 at ₩1,414, and is also positioned under the long-term MA-200 at ₩1,481. The Ichimoku Kijun line marks resistance at ₩1,415. Among momentum indicators, the MACD confirms a sell bias while the ADX is neutral; RSI stands at 42.8, pointing to selling conditions. Both CCI and Bull/Bear Power show the pair is oversold, implying selling dominance intraday. Conversely, Stoch RSI signals a strong buy, highlighting a divergence from classic momentum readings. Awesome Oscillator readings are also aligned with a bearish setup.

Rangebound action expected as downside risk prevails

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/KRW is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of ₩1,404 to ₩1,418. Scenario probabilities suggest a 23% chance of an upward move versus a 77% likelihood of further decline. The baseline expectation is for continued rangebound action within these levels, while a move above ₩1,415 could trigger a recovery. Conversely, a break below support may lead to additional losses toward the lower end of the range.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Senior Analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/KRW pair facing continued selling momentum below key moving averages. He notes that technical signals remain bearish despite a minor intraday recovery attempt, with momentum and trend indicators supportive of further downside. The expert believes rangebound price action is likely in the short term unless resistance at ₩1,415 is reclaimed. "If USD/KRW can break above ₩1,415, conditions may shift in favor of buyers — but for now, sellers remain in control," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that sellers continued to dominate USD/KRW, with downside risks persisting amid bearish technical momentum. The current article reaffirms this prevailing bearish outlook with fresh intraday data and suggests that traders should watch for renewed volatility if the pair breaks below the lower boundary of the expected range at ₩1,404.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.