Philippines Visayas grid faces higher outage risk if power additions slip

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Visayas grid outage risk

Highlights

Visayas grid faces elevated risk of red and yellow alerts if 253 MW BESS projects and 293 MW diesel generation additions are delayed beyond 2026–2027.
The grid experienced 115 yellow alerts and 44 red alerts this year due to multiple plant outages, exposing persistent supply vulnerabilities.
El Niño threatens to cut hydropower and solar output by up to 60% and 20% respectively, intensifying dependence on diesel and battery storage for reliability.

Planned capacity additions and supply risks

As reported by BusinessWorld Online, the Department of Energy says the Visayas grid remains vulnerable to further red and yellow alerts if project timelines slip, with the risk increasing as El Niño intensifies.

In a Monday briefing, Energy Undersecretary Mario C. Marasigan says the government is counting on battery energy storage system projects and diesel power barges to supplement regional capacity. The department expects 253 megawatts from BESS projects by the end of 2026 and another 293 MW of diesel-fired generation by the first quarter of 2027.

Marasigan says failure to bring those additional capacities online would lead to a substantial number of red alerts, not only yellow alerts. The Visayas grid has already experienced tight supply conditions this year, with 115 yellow alerts and 44 red alerts triggered by the shutdown of several power plants.

A yellow alert is issued when operating reserves are too thin to meet contingency requirements on the transmission grid. A red alert follows when available supply is insufficient to meet demand, increasing the risk of rotational brownouts.

Broader pressure on Philippine power supply

Marasigan says simulations show the Luzon grid could also experience red alerts until next year, although these would not necessarily result in manual load dropping or actual power interruptions. He adds that committed incoming projects are expected to reduce the frequency of both red and yellow alerts.

In Mindanao, the department expects a few red and yellow alerts in the last quarter of 2027 as El Niño may cut output from the Agus-Pulangi hydroelectric complex. The hydropower system, which spans Lanao del Norte, Lanao del Sur and Bukidnon, currently generates only 700 MW because of aging infrastructure.

Marasigan says lower rainfall linked to El Niño is expected to reduce water replenishment at hydroelectric storage facilities, leading to weaker hydropower generation than normal. Energy Secretary Sharon S. Garin says the Visayas grid is currently stable and no red or yellow alerts are expected in the coming weeks, but she says a 60% drop in hydropower output and a 20% decline in solar generation would reduce supply, leaving the region reliant on barges and batteries to compensate.

In our earlier article on Canada’s nearly $270 million clean-energy funding for New Brunswick, we covered federal support for rehabilitating the 672-MW Mactaquac hydroelectric station and upgrading grid stability at the Salisbury Terminal using a STATCOM system. We noted that the investments are aimed at improving reliability, strengthening energy security, and enabling greater integration of renewables as electricity demand rises.

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