Kalshi and Polymarket comparison highlights divergent private-market pricing

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Kalshi & Polymarket comparison

Highlights

Over the 90 days to Sept. 21, 2026, Polymarket posted negative 5.8% returns while Kalshi posted positive 80.32%, ranking fourth and eighth in activity.
Kalshi traded near its latest funding round valuation while Polymarket traded about 13% below, signaling divergent private-market pricing and sentiment.
As of Sept. 21, 2026, Kalshi's Q3 bid-side volume was $586.1 million (17% of total), Polymarket's Q1 high was $182.5 million (15% of total), with both showing much larger ask-side dominance.

Private-market pricing and trading trends

As reported by MSCI, its Private Company Insights report compares Kalshi and Polymarket across business performance, competitive positioning, trading activity, regulation, funding and corporate development using publicly available information and proprietary data.

Over the 90 days to Sept. 21, 2026, Polymarket ranked fourth and Kalshi ranked eighth among the 10 most active private-market companies, posting returns of negative 5.8% and positive 80.32%, respectively. The summary data indicates Kalshi trades near its latest funding round valuation, while Polymarket trades about 13% below that benchmark.

MSCI says both companies run platforms that let users trade contracts tied to future outcomes in areas including politics, sports and economics. The report places them within the wider prediction markets sector while also comparing their performance with the year-to-date movement of the PM50 Growth index against selected public-market indexes.

Volume mix signals different market depth

As of Sept. 21, 2026, Kalshi recorded its largest bid-side volume in Q3 2026 at $586.1 million, equal to 17% of total bid-ask volume. Polymarket recorded its highest bid-side volume in Q1 2026 at $182.5 million, or 15% of total bid-ask volume.

On the ask side, Kalshi surpassed its previous quarterly peak and reached $2.83 billion, representing 83% of its total bid-ask volume. Over the same period, Polymarket posted $1.52 billion in ask-side volume, representing 95% of its total bid-ask volume.

The figures suggest both platforms are attracting significant activity, but with different balances between buying and selling interest. That trading mix may shape how investors view liquidity, price discovery and competitive standing in the private prediction markets segment.

Our earlier article on Wells Fargo’s post-earnings pullback explained how a modest slide in the stock followed a quarter of mixed revenue but improving profitability metrics. It highlighted stabilizing net interest margin, stronger returns on tangible common equity, and ongoing capital returns as factors supporting a more constructive longer-term investment view despite near-term volatility.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.