Nvidia stock falls below $181 despite renewed export license clearance

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Nvidia stock falls

Highlights

- Nvidia is trading at $180.45, showing short-term consolidation below resistance at $185 despite strong long-term technical signals.

- A U.S.-approved China chip export deal has improved sentiment, but momentum indicators suggest limited immediate upside.

- The upcoming August 27 earnings report could be the next major catalyst for a breakout toward the $190–195 range.

From a technical standpoint, Nvidia maintains a bullish bias. The stock remains comfortably above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which currently sit near $173 and $147, respectively. This positioning supports the ongoing uptrend. The daily chart reveals a classic continuation pattern, with short-term pullbacks contained by a rising trendline established in late April. Oscillators are neutral to slightly bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 59—below overbought territory but showing signs of fatigue.

Support levels are well-defined at $179.50 (S1) and $175.30 (S2), while resistance is encountered at $183.40 (R1) and $185.70 (R2). A breakout above $185 could lead to a test of the psychological $190 mark, but failure to hold current support may send the stock toward $173. These technical zones align with recent consolidation ranges seen after Nvidia's surge past the $170 level in early July.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (June 2025 - August 2025). Source: TradingView

On the weekly timeframe, the stock shows a golden cross pattern formed earlier in Q2, where the 50-week moving average crossed above the 200-week MA. This is often interpreted as a long-term bullish signal. The golden cross has historically preceded multi-quarter uptrends in Nvidia’s price action, particularly during the 2016 and 2020 AI growth cycles. The base formation from earlier this year now acts as structural support, keeping the broader uptrend intact and providing a buffer against unexpected market pullbacks.

China chip export license

The recent licensing agreement between Nvidia and the U.S. government is a significant macro catalyst. Under the deal, Nvidia is now permitted to sell modified H20 AI chips to Chinese clients in exchange for a royalty-like arrangement: 15% of revenue from these sales will go to the U.S. Department of Commerce. This compromise follows months of uncertainty around AI chip exports amid rising geopolitical tensions. The announcement has reinvigorated investor confidence in Nvidia’s global reach and earnings potential.

Adding further intrigue, U.S. President Donald Trump praised Nvidia in a recent interview, calling it “a cornerstone of American tech dominance” and hinting at potential tax incentives for U.S.-based chipmakers. Although speculative, this political support could have policy implications for Nvidia’s future operations.

These developments come as Nvidia recently surpassed the $4 trillion market capitalization milestone, briefly making it the most valuable company globally. While this valuation has since pulled back slightly, it underlines investor appetite for AI-related growth stocks. Additionally, the broader market context remains favorable, with Nasdaq strength continuing and tech earnings coming in better than expected.

Base case targets $195, upside extends to $220 by Q4

In the short term, Nvidia is likely to test the $183–185 resistance zone again. If bulls can push through on strong volume, the next leg higher targets $190–195. This scenario is supported by a broad uptrend, sustained institutional demand, and constructive consolidation patterns.

The base case assumes earnings on August 27 will show continued revenue acceleration and stable margins. If confirmed, Nvidia could extend its gains into the $200–220 range by the fourth quarter. This would match prior trend extensions and align with bullish projections made by analysts at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, who both set year-end targets around $220.

Investor sentiment has strengthened following bullish news from Foxconn, a key Nvidia hardware partner. AI servers now account for 41% of Foxconn’s Q2 revenue, and the company projects a 170% year-over-year jump in AI server revenue for Q3, with rack shipments set to triple.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.