Tesla stock jumps 9.3% on Musk claim Optimus to drive company growth

Highlights

- Tesla shares rose 9.3% following Elon Musk’s bold claim that the Optimus robot could eventually account for 80% of the company’s value.

- The stock broke above $400, supported by strong technical momentum and elevated investor interest in AI-driven growth.

- Core automotive revenues continue to decline, raising questions about near-term fundamentals despite the bullish momentum.

The stock’s 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages currently sit at approximately $341, $328, and $312 respectively, indicating that Tesla is comfortably trading above all key moving averages. This is a strong bullish signal and suggests momentum may continue if supported by market sentiment or further news flow. The alignment of all major moving averages below the current price confirms a positive long-term trend. Such a technical setup often attracts algorithmic and momentum-driven trading, adding fuel to short-term upside.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the 70–75 level, which typically indicates overbought conditions. However, TSLA has historically maintained extended rallies even in overbought territory, particularly when driven by future-facing product narratives like Full Self-Driving (FSD) or now, Optimus. That said, overbought signals often precede consolidation phases, especially if no new bullish catalyst emerges. Traders should monitor RSI divergence and MACD crossovers for signs of a potential short-term reversal.

Tesla stock price dynamics (July 2025 - September 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume over the past five trading sessions has averaged over 110% of its 30-day average, showing strong institutional participation. The short interest in TSLA remains moderate, meaning there's less likelihood of a short squeeze driving the current move, and more likelihood it is being driven by positioning around Musk’s long-term vision. Notably, options activity has surged, with a rise in bullish call contracts centered on the $420 and $450 strikes.

Optimus hype overshadows EV slowdown

Tesla’s recent rally is largely driven by Elon Musk’s public assertion that the company’s humanoid robot, Optimus, could eventually account for 80% of Tesla’s total value. Musk stated that Tesla would “effectively become the world’s largest robotics company,” with Optimus poised to redefine labor economics and productivity. This bold claim has reignited speculative interest in Tesla's long-term innovation pipeline, drawing comparisons to previous disruptive ambitions like autonomous driving and energy storage.

The Optimus initiative represents a shift in Tesla’s narrative—from electric vehicle (EV) market leader to full-spectrum AI and robotics firm. While some analysts see this as a visionary pivot, others caution that the robot remains in prototype phase and years away from commercialization. Investor sentiment remains split, with some embracing the moonshot potential while others warn of excessive reliance on non-core, unproven technologies.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s core EV business is under pressure. The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of $22.5 billion, down 12% year-over-year. Automotive deliveries declined nearly 14% compared to Q2 2024, and both the Model 3 and Model Y saw slowing demand in North America and Europe. Operating margins also narrowed to 4.1%, impacted by continued price cuts and rising input costs. Regulatory credit revenue, a key margin booster in prior years, has also declined sharply.

Breakout could continue, but pullback risk remains

The near-term outlook for Tesla is bullish, supported by strong price action and market enthusiasm around Optimus and AI. If momentum continues and new developments are shared at upcoming events such as Tesla’s AI Day or earnings calls, the stock could push toward $450 or even $475 in the next quarter. Retail sentiment remains elevated, with high social media engagement and increased flows into Tesla-related ETFs.

In a high-conviction bullish case—where Tesla demonstrates a working Optimus prototype in commercial trials or secures government contracts or major industrial partnerships—the stock could accelerate toward $500–$550 in early 2026. Institutional investors could begin pricing in long-term AI-driven revenue models, especially if supported by early adoption from enterprise or government clients.

Investor optimism is shifting toward Tesla’s long-term AI and robotics potential, including robotaxis and Optimus, positioning the company more as a tech leader than a traditional automaker. While U.S. EV market share has dropped to 38% amid rising competition, bulls see a path to recovery through a future $25,000 mass-market EV.

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