AWS outage and weak momentum — Amazon price forecast stays bearish below $215.00

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Amazon climbs 0.93% to $215.00 today

Highlights

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) trades at $215.00, below the MA-20 ($220.11) and MA-50 ($225.52), but just above key MA-200 support at $214.24.
October 20, 2025, AWS outage disrupted government, AI, and consumer services, intensifying investor focus on AWS profitability ahead of quarterly earnings.
Momentum signals remain bearish with oversold oscillators and low volatility, projecting a likely price range of $202.33–$209.38 and downside risk if $214.24 support breaks.

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Amazon Web Services recently experienced a significant outage on October 20, 2025, disrupting multiple government, AI, and consumer services, but has since returned to normal operations. The event underscored AWS's importance to the overall business, as investors continue to monitor its profitability and performance. Investors are also looking ahead to Amazon’s upcoming quarterly earnings report for further cues.

Negativity persists as momentum signals diverge at support

Momentum signals are mixed: ADX shows strong trend strength, but MACD remains bearish. Oscillators confirm oversold conditions, with low RSI, low Stoch RSI, and CCI deep in negative territory. Sellers dominate intraday action as BBP shows continued pressure, with the price at today's high of $215.00 after a small gap and subdued volatility. While there is some early session strength, the prevailing momentum remains skewed negative, and recent intraday gains are not supported by underlying trend indicators. Key technical levels are the MA-200 ($214.24) as support and the ichimoku Kijun ($223.47) as resistance.

Downside favored as persistent resistance limits reversal prospects

For the next five trading days, AMZN is expected to trade in a range between $202.33 and $209.38, with an average potentially near $205.85. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further downside the likelier scenario. The baseline forecast is for AMZN to remain capped below $215.00 in a sideways channel, with a bullish reversal only if it closes above $223.47. A drop below the MA-200 at $214.24 may intensify bearish momentum and test support around $202.33.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Amazon.com Inc. remaining under clear technical pressure, with recent AWS outages further highlighting operational risks and investor caution ahead of earnings. He notes that while immediate support at the MA-200 ($214.24) is holding, short- and medium-term momentum indicators, as well as oversold oscillators, paint a defensive picture. Kharitonov’s view is that any sustainable bullish reversal requires a close above the ichimoku Kijun at $223.47 — until then, the setup favors further downside or sideways action. "Base case remains cautious: as long as AMZN holds below $223.47, I see little reason to expect meaningful upside."

Previously it was noted that Amazon South Africa launched temporary physical stores under the Shop Mzansi brand to connect entrepreneurs and shoppers. The initiative was designed to spotlight locally made products and facilitate entrepreneur-shopper interaction during Heritage Day.

Source of Data: AMZN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.