Silver price prediction: XAG/USD pressured lower as Fed stance offsets weak ISM data

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Sholanke Dele

04.11.2025

Silver price prediction: XAG/USD pressured lower as Fed stance offsets weak ISM data — Silver drops 1.5% to $47.47

Silver’s bullish recovery appears to have stalled amid renewed sell-side pressure. Today, Tuesday, November 4, silver fell 1.5% through the Asian and European sessions to a low of $47.47, before recovering slightly to trade at $47.9, trimming losses to 0.66% for the day. The metal is now on its third consecutive bearish day, a sign of fatigue in the upward move that began late last week.

- Silver drops 1.5% to $47.47 before a mild rebound trims daily losses.

- Dollar rallies for a fourth day, extending pressure on precious metals and commodities.

- Silver technical death cross at $47.9 caps recovery, hinting at further near-term weakness.

The ongoing recovery started from the 50-day EMA at $45.6, where silver found solid support after falling more than 16% from its all-time high at $54.42 to that five-week low. Since then, buyers have attempted to reassert control, but the pace of the rebound has been met by headwinds from a stronger U.S. Dollar. This currency has rallied for four straight sessions and now trades near its highest level since early August.

Silver price dynamics (Sept - Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview

Data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the U.S. Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, missing forecasts of 49.5. Ordinarily, weaker manufacturing data could weigh on the dollar and support commodities such as Silver, but the market has instead latched on to recent hawkish comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. His remarks reinforced expectations that rates could stay elevated for longer, prompting renewed dollar strength and tempering the appeal of precious metals.

EMA cross formation hints at potential for continued silver weakness

Technically, silver’s intraday rebound has been capped by resistance at the 20-EMA on the 1-hour chart, currently positioned near $47.9. Adding to the short-term bearish structure, the 50-EMA has crossed below the 100-EMA, forming what traders recognize as a death cross—a technical sign that suggests potential for continued weakness in the near term.

While the broader recovery phase from $45.6 remains valid on higher timeframes, short-term momentum signals that Silver may extend lower or consolidate within a range between $45.6 and $49.3. The market appears to be in a balancing phase, weighing silver’s industrial demand, particularly from AI-related technologies, against the renewed pressure from the Fed’s hawkish stance and the dollar’s persistent strength.

Overall, the metal’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether Silver can hold above $47.5 and reclaim $49, or whether sellers will exploit the technical weakness to push prices back toward $46 in the coming sessions.

We discussed silver rebounding over 1% as buyers sustained momentum despite the dollar’s continued strength. Traders awaited the ISM PMI report as a potential catalyst for short-term direction.

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