Gold price forecast: XAU holds near $4,100 as Fed cut bets and reopening optimism shape sentiment

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold Fed cuts government reopening

Highlights

- Gold trades near $4,100, holding recent gains after a multi-day rebound.

- Markets price in a 68% chance of a 25-bps Fed rate cut at the next meeting.

- The broader trend stays bullish, supported by lower yields and strong central bank demand.

The daily chart shows gold testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $4,190, following a recovery from $3,885. This level has become a critical ceiling for buyers, with recent rejection candles indicating hesitation. Immediate support lies at $4,035, where the 20-day EMA aligns with the short-term floor, while deeper support sits at $3,906, near the 50-day EMA. A close below these levels could extend profit-taking toward $3,710, the 100-day EMA, which remains a zone of historical demand.

Gold price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

Momentum signals remain mixed. The RSI is hovering around 57, suggesting moderate bullish sentiment but without breakout strength. The MACD histogram has flattened, signaling cooling momentum. This configuration implies that gold may consolidate near current levels before attempting another push through $4,190. A confirmed breakout above $4,275, which coincides with a descending trendline, would likely open the path to $4,381 and possibly $4,687, the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

Policy expectations drive sentiment

Gold’s short-term direction remains tightly linked to interest rate expectations. Futures markets now assign a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s December meeting, while a minority of traders see room for a 50-basis-point move. This dovish tilt continues to weigh on the dollar and Treasury yields, underpinning non-yielding assets like gold.

Meanwhile, optimism around the government funding agreement has cooled safe-haven flows. Although the Senate has approved measures to reopen operations, the process still awaits final confirmation, leaving some uncertainty intact. Once the government fully resumes activity, improved investor confidence could briefly pressure gold, but traders expect dips to attract renewed buying interest.

Long-term trend remains favorable

Despite short-term consolidation, gold remains on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979. Structural drivers — including declining real yields, easing inflation, and record central bank purchases — continue to reinforce the bullish case. Should the Fed confirm its dovish pivot in coming weeks, momentum could accelerate toward new record highs in early 2026.

In earlier analysis, gold’s rebound from $3,885 was highlighted as a key defense of its long-term trendline support. That reaction continues to anchor the market, and the current consolidation under $4,190 suggests buyers are preparing for the next breakout. The bias remains upward as long as price stays above the 20-day EMA and buyers defend the $4,000 region.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.