Nvidia shares slip to $192 as AI stock rally stalls ahead of earnings

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Nvidia stock slips

Highlights

- Nvidia is trading near $192 with weakening short-term momentum, holding above key support at $190 but struggling to reclaim its 50-day moving average.

- Valuation remains elevated at 56x earnings, raising concerns that AI growth expectations may already be priced in.

- The stock is likely to stay range-bound between $190–212 unless upcoming earnings or guidance deliver a significant upside catalyst.

The daily chart shows a flattening momentum, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 49, indicating that the stock is in neutral territory—not overbought or oversold. This suggests a period of consolidation, with neither bulls nor bears in clear control. Key moving averages paint a mixed picture. The 50-day moving average sits at approximately US$196.3, now acting as a near-term resistance level, while the 200-day moving average, at around US$190.5, is offering strong support.

The divergence between the short- and long-term moving averages reflects an important technical setup: the long-term trend remains bullish, but the short-term sentiment has weakened. Notably, technical indicators show the 200-day MA still signals buy, whereas the 50-day MA is flashing sell.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (September 2025 - November 2025). Source: TradingView

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) has turned slightly negative at around -0.76, and several oscillators, including momentum and stochastic indicators, are issuing bearish signals. The key support zone lies at US$190, which coincides with the 200-day MA and a strong psychological level. A break below could trigger downside momentum toward US$180 and even US$175, areas of prior price congestion. On the upside, resistance stands at US$196–200, with a breakout potentially testing the 52-week high at US$212.

AI-driven valuations face heightened scrutiny

As highlighted in a recent Investopedia report, Nvidia and other AI-related stocks are showing signs of fatigue. The article underscores growing investor skepticism about whether the AI rally can continue at its current pace. Nvidia is at the center of this debate. With a trailing P/E of about 56x, according to Yahoo Finance, the stock is priced for perfection, leaving little room for error.

Investor enthusiasm for AI infrastructure, large language models, and hyperscaler demand has fueled Nvidia’s market cap to over US$1.2 trillion, putting it in rarefied territory. While Nvidia's dominance in GPUs and high-performance AI computing is undisputed, the expectations built into its share price are extremely high. Markets are now questioning whether the actual growth in AI deployments—particularly enterprise adoption—can keep pace with the narrative.

Adding to the uncertainty are macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds. U.S.–China trade tensions continue to impact chip exports, and any regulatory pressure or export restrictions could affect Nvidia’s top-line growth. Meanwhile, analysts are split: some believe Nvidia will continue to dominate the AI cycle for years, while others warn that competition from AMD, Intel, and custom silicon by cloud providers could erode its margins and market share.

Price prediction and near-term scenarios

Nvidia is most likely to trade within the US$190–212 range over the next four to six weeks. This scenario assumes earnings meet expectations and market sentiment remains balanced. The stock remains range-bound with limited upside until a fresh catalyst emerges.

Upside scenario: If Nvidia delivers a strong earnings beat, raises guidance, or announces major AI-related partnerships or customer wins, the stock could break above the US$212 resistance level. In this case, momentum traders could push the price toward US$230–240, though valuations would become even more stretched.

Nvidia shares fell after SoftBank Group disclosed it sold its entire 32.1 million share stake in October, raising $5.83 billion at an average price below $182. Though framed as a strategic shift to fund other AI investments, the timing of the exit has unsettled investors.

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