Nvidia stock slips 2.7% as Peter Thiel fund exits entire stake

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Nvidia stock slips 2.7%

Highlights

Peter Thiel’s fund, Thiel Macro, sold its entire Nvidia stake in Q3, raising questions about AI stock valuations.

Nvidia shares fell 2.7% as the stock approached key technical support levels.

Traders are watching closely ahead of earnings, with rising volatility and signs of weakening momentum.

Technically, Nvidia remains in an upward-sloping channel, but the recent rejection near the $200–210 zone has formed a short-term resistance ceiling. The key support range now lies between $175–180, a region that has held during recent dips and coincides with the lower Bollinger Band. If breached, the next downside target could be the 50-day moving average at $172, followed by the 200-day MA closer to $157.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated from overbought levels and now sits around 57, reflecting weakening bullish momentum. Volume has also contracted over the last two sessions, suggesting reduced conviction among buyers. The MACD histogram is flatlining near the zero line, indicating a loss of momentum without a clear bearish reversal. In summary, the stock remains in a medium-term uptrend but is vulnerable to a correction if selling pressure increases and support levels break.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (September 2025 - November 2025). Source: TradingView.

Options market activity also points to growing short-term caution. Put-call ratios have risen modestly, indicating increased demand for downside protection. Implied volatility has ticked higher, especially in near-dated contracts, suggesting traders are positioning for potential price swings ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming earnings. This shift in derivatives sentiment aligns with the broader technical setup, where the risk of a pullback is rising despite the longer-term bullish structure remaining intact.

Insider selling and valuation concerns dominate sentiment

Investor sentiment on Nvidia has taken a cautious tone following reports that prominent tech investor Peter Thiel’s fund—Thiel Macro LLC—completely liquidated its stake in Nvidia during Q3. According to SEC filings, the fund sold approximately 537,742 shares, worth nearly $250 million, at a time when Nvidia was trading at or near its highs. This move has sparked broader concerns that early investors are beginning to take profits amid elevated valuations.

Compounding the issue, SoftBank Group Corp. also exited its Nvidia position during the same quarter, reinforcing the perception that institutional players are locking in gains. Analysts warn that while AI demand remains a powerful secular driver, Nvidia’s price-to-earnings ratio—currently near 80x forward earnings—is difficult to justify without continued exponential growth.

Still, not all sentiment is bearish. Brokerage firms such as DA Davidson, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan maintain bullish outlooks, citing robust demand from hyperscalers, cloud service providers, and frontier AI research labs. They argue that Nvidia remains the undisputed leader in AI GPUs, with dominant market share and recurring demand from AI model training. Nvidia’s upcoming Q3 earnings report, scheduled for next week, is expected to show $16 billion+ in revenue—up more than 170% year-over-year.

Range-bound bias with downside risk

Looking ahead to the next one to three months, Nvidia is likely to trade in a consolidation range between $175 and $210. The base case scenario assumes continued earnings strength and stable market sentiment, in which case the stock may rebound and retest the $200–205 resistance area. A confirmed breakout above $210 on strong volume and earnings surprise could pave the way to $225–230, driven by renewed investor enthusiasm.

In a bullish scenario—anchored by a strong Q3 report, rising GPU demand from AI labs, and easing regulatory concerns—Nvidia may extend its rally toward $240 by January 2026. However, if sentiment deteriorates due to weaker guidance, China-related headwinds, or continued insider selling, the stock risks a drop toward the $160–165 area, where its 200-day moving average offers potential support.

Global growth concerns, particularly from Japan and China, have weighed on market sentiment, adding pressure to Nvidia’s near-term outlook. Weaker industrial data and geopolitical tensions in Asia could dampen investor appetite for high-growth tech stocks reliant on global demand and supply chains.

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