LVMH stock down 1.6% despite watch unit buying stake in Swiss maker

Highlights

LVMH stock fell 1.6% to €613.9 following its watch unit’s acquisition of a minority stake in Swiss manufacturer La Joux‑Perret.
The move enhances LVMH’s control over its watchmaking supply chain, reinforcing vertical integration.
Despite short-term pressure, the stock remains technically supported with upside potential toward €700.

LVMH's latest strategic move involves a minority stake acquisition in La Joux‑Perret, a Swiss manufacturer known for high-end mechanical movements. The deal, part of LVMH’s broader vertical integration strategy, will particularly strengthen the group's watch division, which includes key brands like TAG Heuer, Hublot, and Zenith.

The move allows LVMH to exert greater control over its production pipeline, improve supply chain efficiency, and ensure consistent quality standards—especially important in the luxury watch market, where differentiation is often tied to in-house movement capabilities. By securing a partner in La Joux-Perret, LVMH reduces its dependence on external suppliers such as ETA or Sellita, which are used widely across the Swiss watch industry.

More broadly, the deal reflects LVMH’s ongoing efforts to build resilience in a volatile luxury market. Its H1 2025 results showed a 3% decline in organic revenue and a 15% drop in operating profit year-over-year. Still, the company maintained an operating margin of 22.6%, a sign of cost control and brand pricing power.

Technical analysis shows limited downside amid consolidation

On the technical side, the stock appears to be consolidating, with the €580–€620 range serving as a key support zone. This level has been tested multiple times during past pullbacks and has held, making it a potential entry point for investors looking to accumulate. Resistance is likely to be encountered around the €700–€740 level, close to the March 2025 highs.

The 50-day moving average, although not explicitly stated, is likely hovering just below current price levels, possibly in the €600 range, while the 200-day moving average likely lies deeper, perhaps near €580. This configuration implies a slightly bullish bias, with the short-term momentum stabilizing and long-term trends still supportive. However, the short-term pullback of 1.6% on November 18 may indicate increased caution among traders ahead of year-end macroeconomic data.

LVMH stock price dynamics (September 2025 - November 2025). Source: TradingView.

LVMH has delivered a 1-year return of around 11.7%, nearly matching the performance of the French CAC 40 Index. This reinforces the stock’s role as a solid but not high-growth equity—characteristic of a mega-cap luxury conglomerate with diversified brand exposure across fashion, perfumes, watches, jewelry, and wine & spirits.

Range-bound with bullish potential into Q1

Given the current technical and macroeconomic setup, LVMH’s price is likely to remain range-bound in the short term. The base case sees the stock trading between €600 and €680 over the next three months. If consumer spending in Asia recovers and Q4 sales trends stabilize, the stock could make a run toward the €700 resistance level.

In a bullish scenario—driven by stronger-than-expected holiday season performance, easing FX headwinds, and positive reception of its watch division expansion—the stock could break out above €700 and target €740 to €760. In a bearish scenario, where macroeconomic uncertainty persists and discretionary spending declines further, LVMH could retest support near €580. A break below that level could open downside toward €550.

Investor sentiment toward LVMH has turned cautiously optimistic after a stronger-than-expected Q3 and renewed confidence in China’s luxury demand recovery. LVMH highlighted China’s strategic importance, citing improved sales and deep market presence with 46 brands and over 1,800 stores.

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