LVMH stock climbs 1.8% as China sales rebound and Q4 demand eyed

Highlights

LVMH reported a stronger-than-expected Q3, with signs of recovery in Chinese demand, particularly in fashion and leather goods.
Management emphasized China's strategic importance, citing long-term growth in beauty, gastronomy, and cultural experiences.
The stock remains technically range-bound, with potential upside if holiday season demand confirms the rebound.

Investor sentiment around LVMH has shifted from defensive to cautiously optimistic following a better-than-expected third-quarter performance and positive commentary from the company regarding China. According to recent statements, LVMH management expressed renewed confidence in the recovery of Chinese luxury demand, citing stronger-than-expected results in China. This marks a clear turning point from Q2, when Chinese sales remained weak due to economic uncertainty and slower consumer activity.

“The future of luxury is being shaped here, in China, with China and with our Chinese clients,” said Marc-Antoine Jamet, LVMH’s Secretary General, during a press event in Paris prior to the group’s participation in the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai.

Jamet underscored the strategic importance of China to the group, where LVMH now operates 46 brands, over 1,800 stores, and employs approximately 27,000 people.

He further noted, “Local consumption continues to move upmarket, guided by a search for meaning, quality and experience rather than simple ownership. We already see new opportunities emerging in beauty, gastronomy and cultural experiences.” His remarks reflect a broader shift in Chinese consumer behavior, with buyers becoming more discerning and experience-driven—a trend that aligns well with LVMH’s focus on heritage, craftsmanship and brand storytelling.

LVMH tests €615 as key inflection zone

Technically, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is hovering just above €620, while the 200-day SMA remains elevated around €690. The stock remains below both averages, indicating that while the short-term bounce is gaining traction, medium-term momentum remains neutral to bearish. A decisive close above the €630–€650 region would be required to shift the trend outlook toward bullish.

The key support level remains between €580 and €600, which has been repeatedly tested since early October and has held firm. If broken, the next structural support lies near €550, where previous accumulation took place in late 2022. Conversely, resistance stands between €660 and €700, with the latter aligning with April’s local top and representing a significant psychological threshold for market participants.

LVMH stock price dynamics (September 2025 - November 2025). Source: TradingView.

Recent momentum indicators, including the RSI (Relative Strength Index), suggest the stock is emerging from oversold territory, now trending around 52, which implies increasing buying interest without overextension. However, volume has been average, suggesting cautious re-entry rather than broad conviction. In summary, LVMH is currently trading at a technically sensitive level. If support near €600 holds and price breaks above €650 on solid volume, it would likely confirm the beginning of a broader uptrend reversal.

Price prediction and risk-reward scenarios

In the short term, LVMH is likely to remain range-bound between €600 and €650 as investors await further macro and company-specific signals. Market participants are closely watching upcoming retail data from China’s Singles’ Day and global Black Friday sales as early indicators of Q4 strength. Should momentum continue into Q4 and be confirmed by strong holiday season demand, a break above €660 could target €700 as the next upside level.

The base-case 12-month scenario targets €720–€750, assuming continued stabilisation in China and gradual recovery in Europe. This implies a potential upside of approximately 17–20% from current levels. In the bullish scenario, with stronger-than-expected Q4 performance and sustained China strength, shares could revisit all-time highs near €780–€800, though this would require sector-wide re-rating and macro tailwinds.

LVMH is reportedly in advanced talks to sell Marc Jacobs for around $1 billion as part of a broader strategy to streamline its fashion portfolio and focus on top-performing luxury brands. However, failed negotiations with Authentic Brands Group highlight ongoing challenges in finding buyers for non-core assets amid a softer luxury market.

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