Diageo price forecast: more downside ahead? DGE trades below key resistance

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Diageo slides 0.52% today on weakness

Highlights

Diageo appointed Nik Jhangiani as Chief Financial Officer, with his board seat starting in autumn 2024 after leaving Coca-Cola Europacific Partners.
Diageo sold its Windsor whisky business in South Korea for £124 million as part of ongoing portfolio streamlining efforts.
Recent financial results show North American sales declined due to weaker demand and inventory adjustments, partially offset by continued growth in Asia Pacific.

Portfolio shift and CFO hire as North American sales weigh

Diageo has announced the appointment of Nik Jhangiani as its new Chief Financial Officer, with his board seat beginning in autumn 2024 after his tenure at Coca-Cola Europacific Partners. The company is also advancing its portfolio streamlining strategy by selling its Windsor whisky business in South Korea for £124 million. Recent financial results highlight a decline in North American sales due to weaker demand and inventory adjustments, partially offset by continued growth in Asia Pacific.

No clear support as bearish momentum persists below Kijun

At GBX 1,722.50, Diageo is trading well below its MA-20 (GBX 1,784.98), MA-50 (GBX 1,797.65), and MA-200 (GBX 1,976.39), confirming persistent downward pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term timeframes. The nearest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at GBX 1,769.50, while no nearby support from major moving averages is present at current levels. Momentum remains bearish, with MACD signaling a downtrend and ADX D1 showing a weak trend (value 15.86), while RSI (41.78), Stoch RSI (39.42), and CCI (–86.40) point to mild oversold conditions but not extreme levels. BBP is strongly negative (–27.67), indicating clear seller dominance intraday. Oscillators confirm broad downside alignment with only minor divergence on Stoch RSI, which remains neutral.

Downside risk elevated as price outlook skews bearish

For the coming five trading days, the expected range is GBX 1,710 to GBX 1,760, reflecting the current price area and typical blue-chip volatility. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), with a significantly higher likelihood of further decline. Baseline scenario sees DGE consolidating between support and resistance near the lower end of the weekly corridor. A bullish scenario would require the price to reclaim GBX 1,770 and stabilize above the Kijun line, while a bearish outcome could accelerate if the price breaks below GBX 1,710, exposing further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent weakness in Diageo's technical setup. The price trades well below key moving averages, with no nearby support and all indicators aligned to the downside. Recent news on executive changes and asset sales does not offset weak momentum or poor sentiment after North American sales disappointments. "Until Diageo climbs back above GBX 1,770, I expect further pressure and remain cautious on any upside attempts."

Previously it was noted that Diageo faced downside risk as it was positioned in a structurally bearish pattern across all timeframes. Last time, we reported that there was less than 20% chance of price gains in the near term due to diverging momentum indicators and persistent selling pressure.

Source of Data: DGE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.