Weak technicals — Diageo trades around GBX 1,698 amid downside price forecast

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Diageo slides 0.24% today

Highlights

Diageo set its 2025 final dividend at 47.91 pence per ordinary share, totaling approximately 76.1 pence per share for the year.
The 2025 dividend translates to 62.98 US cents per share, based on forward FX rates disclosed at the annual general meeting on November 6.
Diageo reported a nearly 28% year-on-year drop in FY25 operating profit in August and increased its cost-saving target to £625 million.

Dividend increase and profit drop drive cost-saving push

Diageo has set its 2025 final dividend at 47.91 pence per ordinary share, following shareholder approval at the annual general meeting on November 6. This dividend, equivalent to 62.98 US cents per share using forward FX rates, brings the total annual dividend to approximately 76.1 pence per share. In August, Diageo's FY25 preliminary results revealed a nearly 28% year-on-year drop in operating profit, prompting the company to raise its cost-saving target to £625 million.

Persistence of bearish momentum amid oversold technical signals

The current price of Diageo (GBX 1,698.00) is below the MA-20 (GBX 1,784.98), MA-50 (GBX 1,797.65), and MA-200 (GBX 1,976.39), confirming marked short-, medium-, and long-term downside pressure. The closest dynamic resistance is the Ichimoku Kijun at GBX 1,769.50, while short-term support sits in the lower part of the recent range. Momentum indicators on the daily chart lean bearish, with MACD signaling a sell and ADX at a low 15.86, suggesting a weak trend. RSI and CCI both hint at further downside, while Stoch RSI and BBP indicate oversold conditions with sellers heavily dominating intraday momentum; the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. The day saw a slight gap up at the open, but the price retreated, currently near the lower end of today's GBX 1,680.66–GBX 1,709.26 range. Volatility is moderate and the tone shows ongoing pressure after the open, consistent with momentum indicators. While some oscillators show oversold signals implying a possible pause or rebound, the prevailing intraday dynamic is still negative.

Bearish outlook dominates as technicals signal further downside

Looking ahead to the next five trading days, the realistic forecast range is adjusted to GBX 1,670– GBX 1,740, keeping moves within ±2 – 2.5% of the present level. All weekly signals (MA-50, MA-100, MA-200, RSI, MACD, and ADX) point firmly downward, indicating a very low probability (less than 20%) for a price increase and a much higher likelihood of further decline. The baseline scenario is consolidation between GBX 1,670 and GBX 1,740 if oversold conditions trigger stabilization. A bullish move could occur if the price breaks above GBX 1,770, but is less likely given momentum. Should support at GBX 1,680 fail, expect bearish extension toward the lower end of the range.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Diageo continues to exhibit clear downside pressure, with the price stuck below all key moving averages. He highlights that bearish technical indicators align with negative sentiment, especially after the sharp drop in operating profit and the increase in cost-saving targets. Kharitonov believes the base case remains range-bound and defensive, given persistent weak momentum and only faint signs of oversold relief. "Unless Diageo convincingly reclaims the GBX 1,770 level, I remain skeptical about any sustainable upside in the near term."

Last time, we reported that there was less than 20% chance of price gains in the near term. It was also noted that persistent bearish momentum and diverging indicators continued to weigh on Diageo's outlook.

Source of Data: DGE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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