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U.S. gasoline prices, excluding taxes, are primarily driven by global crude oil price movements. Alan Reynolds states that while lower oil prices might seem to benefit from increased U.S. drilling, the reality is that U.S. drilling activity typically declines when global oil prices drop, as is happening currently.
Reynolds suggests political claims linking policy actions to low prices overlook this economic relationship, with U.S. drilling responding directly to market conditions rather than political intervention.