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Robin Brooks: Turkey's reserve losses mirror March 2025 pattern after mayor's arrest
Turkey's recent reserve losses are comparable to those seen in March 2025 following the arrest of Ekrem İmamoğlu. Robin Brooks explains that reserves have risen in the most recent data point only because the central bank utilized its gold holdings to obtain more foreign exchange. According to Brooks, March 2025 ended in a devaluation, suggesting a similar outcome could occur now.
Brooks has previously commented on limited movement in the S&P 500 and U.S. dollar as hedging activity intensified during a period of escalating conflict, according to his note on market reactions to war escalation. He also observed a 9 percent surge in Brent crude prices tied to rallies in emerging market commodity exporter currencies including those of South Africa and Brazil, as reported in a separate update. These earlier market developments provide additional context to his recent comments on Turkey’s reserves.
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