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Sales by China’s largest 100 real estate developers dropped roughly 23 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, according to Caixin and highlighted by Michael Pettis.
The fall in new home sales marks a continued slump, even as major cities like Beijing and Shanghai have started to witness early signs of a rebound in the existing home market. The divergence suggests ongoing challenges in new home demand despite improving activity in some urban secondary markets.
Michael Pettis has previously relayed calls for a higher China GDP target, warning that a 4.5-5.0 percent range could worsen debt and deflation risks in the country’s economy earlier this year. He has also discussed how U.S., UK, and Canadian financial sector interests have shaped trade surplus policies for major economies in a separate column. Pettis’s commentary has focused on both China’s domestic economic policy and its global financial connections.