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Bob Elliott, co-founder and CIO at Unlimited, observes that markets are currently pricing in a rapid end to the Iran conflict, leading to surging stocks and a pullback in oil prices.
However, Elliott emphasizes that with crude oil prices still elevated, market optimism may be outpacing the challenges faced by the real economy.
Elliott previously warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was pushing prices higher each day, complicating market growth expectations. In a separate note, he highlighted the slowest real income growth since 2022, viewing it as a concern beyond headline U.S. GDP numbers. The recent moves come as investors weigh these ongoing economic pressures.