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Robin Brooks, industry influencer, highlights that the Brazilian Real has become the best-performing emerging market currency since the start of the war. He notes this performance excludes the Hungarian Forint, attributing its recent moves to political factors, specifically related to the potential for Orban losing the election.
Brooks suggests that the Real still has further upside potential and states that, unlike in 2022, it could trade below 4.50.
Brooks has previously critiqued other central bank policies, arguing that Japan's foreign exchange interventions have been ineffective due to conflicting roles played by the Ministry of Finance and the central bank. Separately, concerns in Europe have also drawn market attention. Torsten Slok recently highlighted that weakening growth momentum is increasing the risk of recession in the region. These developments reflect the varied pressures shaping global currency markets this year.