Conor Sen: Market should focus on 50-100bps hiking cycle odds

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22.05.2026

Conor Sen: Market should focus on 50-100bps hiking cycle odds — Market focus on full rate hike cycle

Conor Sen suggests that analyzing the odds of a single rate hike over the next 9 to 12 months may be less useful than considering the likelihood of a broader 50 to 100 basis points hiking cycle.

Sen observes that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement just one hike if it resumes tightening, indicating that market participants should adjust their expectations accordingly.

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Sen has previously pointed to risks tied to high valuations across financial markets. In June, he highlighted record-high household equity holdings versus income and potential risks for less affluent groups. Separately, he noted that tech sector volatility could impact municipal budgets due to the sector's influence on local revenues.

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