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Robin Brooks expects global oil markets to continue normalizing, leading to a rapid decline in prices at the pump. According to Brooks, prices are predicted to fall to around $3.5 per gallon in the coming weeks, down from a recent peak near $4.5 per gallon. He attributes this drop to market anticipation and the finalization of a peace deal.
Brooks previously suggested that a peace deal could cut Brent crude’s risk premium, reducing oil prices to $85 a barrel and U.S. gas prices to $4 per gallon, according to his outlook earlier this year. He also noted that persistent conflict had kept Brent crude trading in the $80-90 range due to elevated risk premiums in a separate analysis. These earlier projections set the stage for his latest forecast of further price declines.