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Phil Rosen reports that S&P 500 companies are delivering earnings 39.3 percent above analyst estimates so far this quarter.
He observes that this outperformance is nearly six times the five-year average of surpassing expectations by 7 percent. While some market participants label this "peak earnings" and warn of a possible downturn, companies continue to raise their forward guidance, suggesting ongoing optimism about future performance. Rosen characterizes the situation as a generational bull run.
Earlier this year, Phil Rosen highlighted that the S&P 500 rose 38.5% and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 51.4% since June 2024. He also reported that Microsoft shares declined 25% over the past year despite reporting record quarterly revenue of $82.9 billion. Both developments have contributed to heightened attention on large-cap performance this earnings season.