Flat trading for Silver as $70.65 resistance comes into view

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Silver up 0.84% today at $68.49

Highlights

Escalating Middle East tensions have driven oil prices higher, raising inflation risks and increasing market volatility for silver.
Stronger US economic data and ongoing inflation heightened expectations of further central bank tightening, reducing appeal for non-yielding assets like silver.
Silver is under bearish pressure with weak momentum, expected to trade between $64.03 and $72.95, with a higher probability of further declines.

Oil-driven inflation risks and Fed policy fears compound silver’s selloff

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices and renewed inflationary pressures. This has intensified concerns that central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, will continue hiking interest rates, increasing market volatility for silver. The conflict has also generated fears regarding the stability of key energy transit routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, which has contributed to a nearly 10% decline in silver prices since the onset of hostilities in late February. Stronger-than-expected US economic data and persistent inflation fueled expectations of further US monetary tightening, weighing on demand for non-yielding assets like silver.

Bearish momentum persists as key supports hold and signals diverge

On the technical front, XAG is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H4 chart, and below the MA-200 on the daily timeframe, reflecting persistent seller pressure. The nearest Ichimoku Kijun resistance is at $70.65, while intraday support and resistance are observed at $64.03 and $72.95, respectively. Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, signal a bearish tone, with RSI and CCI both in sell territory, and BBP highlighting oversold market conditions. Stoch RSI and the Awesome Oscillator remain neutral, pointing to some divergence among oscillators.

Further downside likely as volatility corridors constrain silver

Over the next 2–3 trading days, XAG is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band ranging from $64.03 to $72.95. The probability of further declines stands at 65%, while potential for a rebound is assessed at 35%. The baseline scenario is for price consolidation within this corridor; a break above $70.65 could trigger renewed buying, while a move below $64.03 may intensify downside pressure.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees silver as caught between persistent macroeconomic headwinds and fresh volatility from geopolitics. He believes inflation risks and interest rate expectations are weighing on sentiment, but the ongoing Middle East tensions keep the market reactive. The analyst notes that technical signals favor sellers in the near term, yet a rebound cannot be fully ruled out if resistance at $70.65 is breached. "I am constructive in outlook — recent price action suggests silver may consolidate, but a bullish breakout is possible if momentum returns above $70.65."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver remained under persistent bearish pressure due to unfavorable technical and macroeconomic factors. The current environment of heightened geopolitical risk and renewed inflation concerns reinforces this outlook, making further volatility likely as XAG trades below all major moving averages and traders monitor for a decisive move beyond $70.65 or under $64.03.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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