Silver drops after Iran oil waivers and asset release confirmed

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Silver drops 4.47% today to $62.19

Highlights

Easing US-Iran tensions and partial asset releases have reduced Middle East geopolitical risk premiums for silver, improving market sentiment.
Silver remains pressured by the Federal Reserve’s persistent hawkish stance and expectations for a possible rate hike in September.
Bearish momentum dominates silver as it trades well below key moving averages, with downside risk toward $58.3 and limited rebound probability over the next few days.

Middle East thaw and Fed policy weigh as risk premium retreats

Progress in US-Iran peace negotiations has eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading to a reduction in risk premiums for silver, according to Fxstreet. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi confirmed tangible breakthroughs, including granted waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the partial release of Iran’s frozen assets, and the launch of an economic reconstruction program. Meanwhile, persistent warnings from US President Donald Trump regarding possible direct US strikes in response to renewed attacks on Israel have maintained a degree of uncertainty, as reported by Fxstreet. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s continued hawkish policy outlook and the prospect of a rate hike as early as September, as documented by Fxstreet, have continued to pressure silver due to its non-yielding nature.

Technical breakdown intensifies as sell signals gather strength

On the H4 chart, XAG has fallen below the $64.73 MA-20 and the $65.95 MA-50, with price also well beneath the daily MA-200 at $76.46. The Ichimoku Kijun acts as immediate resistance at $64.45. Momentum indicators show negative pressure: MACD and ADX both indicate a sell setup, while RSI at 28.54, Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all register in the oversold or sell territory. The Awesome Oscillator further supports the downside, and price action is close to session lows with moderate volatility.

Bearish bias prevails as volatility defines trading corridor

Over the next 2–3 trading days, XAG is expected to trade within a range of $58.3 to $66.08, based on typical volatility. The likelihood of a downside move is estimated at 75%, with only a 25% chance of an upward reversal. The base case is sideways movement inside this corridor, while a breakout above $64.45 resistance could initiate a bullish move; further declines below $58.3 would reinforce the bearish outlook.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees silver under sustained pressure from both macro and technical perspectives. He believes easing Middle East tensions and a hawkish Fed outlook are reducing the asset’s safe-haven appeal. Key technical indicators confirm clear downside bias, with momentum oscillators remaining firmly bearish. "As long as silver remains below $64.45, I see little justification for a bullish stance in the current environment."

Earlier, analysts noted that robust investor demand and persistent supply concerns were supporting a bullish outlook for silver. However, the recent combination of eased geopolitical tensions and ongoing monetary policy pressures now signals a shift toward sustained downward risk, making the $58.3 support level a critical area to monitor for potential further declines.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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