$65.93 support anchors Silver at current levels

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Silver rises 0.49% to $66.52 today

Highlights

China's addition of key U.S. rare earth firms to its export control list heightens supply chain risks for critical metals.
Escalating trade and geopolitical tensions, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, are fueling inflation concerns and sector volatility.
Silver short-term sentiment is bullish, but technicals favor downside with a projected $62.63–$70.41 range and prevailing bearish momentum.

Supply chain risk increases as China restricts U.S. rare earth exports

China's decision to add multiple U.S. rare earth companies to its export control list, including MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, raises the possibility of tighter metals supply chains, according to Reuters. This move increases global trade friction around critical inputs used in industrial and technological production, prompting investors to reassess supply risks across the precious metals market. Additionally, continuing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the threat of disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz are intensifying inflationary concerns and reinforcing volatility in the sector, Reuters reports.

Divergent oscillator signals as price tests technical resistance

On the H4 chart, XAG trades above its MA-20 but remains below the MA-50, while on the daily timeframe it is well below the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun is providing immediate support at $65.93. Momentum signals are mixed: the RSI suggests a mild buy, the MACD indicates a strong sell, and the ADX also leans bearish. Other oscillators, including the Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP, are in overbought territory, suggesting dominant but possibly exhausted buying interest. The price is near the top of today's range, reflecting divergence between oscillators and trend-focused indicators.

Downside favored as volatility band limits breakout odds

Looking ahead, XAG is expected to trade in a typical volatility band between $62.63 and $70.41 over the next few trading days. There is a 32% probability of an upward breakout and a 68% likelihood of a move lower, making another leg down more probable than sustained gains. The base-case scenario calls for consolidation within this corridor, with upside risk if price clears resistance or further downside if support at $65.93 fails.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, remains cautious on silver despite recent gains. He sees trade frictions between China and the U.S. driving supply risk, but technical momentum is not convincing. Indicators show mixed signals and overbought conditions, so upside may be limited unless support holds. "Base case remains consolidation — if $65.93 breaks, the next move is likely down."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent bearish pressure on silver was driven by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance and diminished safe-haven demand. The current environment adds a new dimension with supply concerns stemming from China’s export controls and heightened geopolitical risks, making the $65.93 support level critical for gauging whether the recent rebound has lasting momentum.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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