Significant gap lower pushes Copper down 3.03%

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Copper drops 3.03% today to $6.16

Highlights

Copper is exhibiting strong short- and medium-term bearish momentum, trading below key short-term moving averages.
Momentum and oscillator indicators signal firm seller dominance as copper remains in oversold territory with moderate volatility.
Expected 2–3 day trading range is $6.0987 to $6.2247, with high probability of further downside unless resistance at $6.2731 is reclaimed.

Oversold momentum and resistance cap as sellers maintain control

On the H1 chart, copper is trading below the MA-20 ($6.2795) and MA-50 ($6.3157) levels, while on the daily timeframe it remains above the MA-200 at $5.8364. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $6.2731 serves as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are negative, with both MACD and ADX generating sell indications. RSI is deep in oversold territory at 19.53, accompanied by similar readings on the Stoch RSI and CCI. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) supports the dominance of sellers, and the Awesome Oscillator is aligned with the current downtrend. Price action opened with a gap down of $0.0728 relative to the previous close and is holding close to the session's lows, with volatility remaining moderate.

Downside risk prevails as rebound probability remains low

Looking ahead to the next 2–3 trading days, copper is expected to trade within a volatility band defined by $6.0987 on the downside and $6.2247 on the upside. The probability of a near-term rebound is very low, while the likelihood of continued downside is high. The base case scenario anticipates a period of consolidation within this range amid ongoing volatility. A move above immediate resistance at $6.2731 would be required to shift short-term sentiment, whereas a breakdown below the support zone could accelerate the downward trajectory.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees copper under significant short-term pressure, yet holding above its long-term trend support. Despite pronounced bearish momentum and oversold technical conditions, he remains confident that the broader macro and fundamental outlook will ultimately stabilize prices. He believes consolidation within the current volatility band is likely in the immediate future. "If copper manages to hold above $6.0987, the stage remains set for potential recovery once sentiment shifts and volatility subsides."

Earlier, analysts noted that copper was exhibiting sustained strength above key moving averages, suggesting the potential for continued sideways consolidation amid easing supply risks. However, the current technical breakdown and intensifying downside momentum mark a shift in market tone, making a decisive move below support a key risk as traders brace for increased volatility.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.