Copper drops after threat of new US tariffs on copper imports

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Copper drops 3.27% to $6.14 today

Highlights

Progress in Iran-US peace talks is improving the supply outlook through the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing copper cost pressures.
Despite peace efforts, energy costs remain elevated and Middle East tensions continue to curb industrial metals demand and sustain supply risk.
Copper faces strong short- and medium-term downside momentum with a projected range of $6.0198 to $6.272 and a bearish bias dominant.

Reduced supply risks as Iran–US diplomacy tempers conflict threats

Iran announced major progress in peace talks with the United States, improving expectations for restored shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and easing inflationary pressures, according to Bloomberg. This diplomatic movement reduces the risk of further supply disruptions for copper and may lower production costs tied to energy inputs. Meanwhile, elevated energy costs and reduced manufacturing activity due to the ongoing Middle East conflict have continued to suppress demand for industrial metals, Bloomberg noted. The potential re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threat of renewed US military action, and the possibility of new US tariffs on copper imports, as highlighted by Brecorder, have added layers of risk aversion and uncertainty.

Bearish momentum intensifies as support holds above oversold signals

HG is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H4 chart, with the MA-200 on the daily timeframe still holding beneath current price action. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $6.2758. Key support stands near $6.0198, defining the current trading corridor. Momentum indicators are strongly bearish: MACD and ADX both confirm selling pressure, RSI is at 28.1, and CCI plus Stoch RSI are firmly in oversold territory. BBP shows sellers dominate intraday action, and the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the prevailing downtrend.

Downside favored as volatility bands limit potential rebounds

Over the next two to three trading days, HG is expected to move within a typical volatility band of $6.0198 to $6.272. There is a 79% probability of further downside, with only a 21% chance of an upward move in the short-term. The base scenario calls for sideways price action inside this corridor; a clear rebound would require a breakout above resistance at $6.2758, while a move through support at $6.0198 would confirm renewed bearish momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that copper faces persistent selling pressure amid risk-laden macro news and bearish technicals. He sees weak demand signals and elevated uncertainty from ongoing geopolitical tensions and tariff threats. Technical conditions remain negative with oversold momentum, and no clear bullish reversal is visible yet. "Base case is a sideways to lower move inside $6.0198–$6.272; I would stay defensive unless $6.2758 resistance is broken with conviction."

Previously it was reported that copper's technical breakdown and intensifying downside momentum posed a heightened risk for further declines. The inclusion of shifting geopolitical dynamics and evolving macroeconomic factors in the current outlook reinforces bearish conditions, suggesting that traders should closely monitor whether support at $6.0198 holds to avoid the risk of an accelerated downward move.

Source of Data: HG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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