US-Iran military strikes: Can Brent crude price break above resistance?

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Brent crude up 1.09% at $90.32

Highlights

Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran near the Strait of Hormuz are increasing concerns about potential disruptions to oil supply routes.
Short-term supply constraint risk has attracted fresh buying interest in Brent crude as markets focus on developments in the region.
XBR/USD maintains a bullish structure above key support at $88.97, with technical signals indicating a very high probability of a move in the $89.02 to $91.62 range.

Geopolitical risk fuels supply concerns amid Strait of Hormuz tensions

Renewed US-Iran tensions and reports of US military strikes near the Strait of Hormuz have driven market concerns about potential disruption to oil supplies, according to Business Standard. The risk of restricted transit through this key passage increases the possibility of short-term supply constraints, directly supporting recent buying interest in Brent crude. These geopolitical developments have become the central focus for market participants, amplifying sensitivity to further headlines out of the region.

Bullish signals strengthen as price outpaces technical resistance

On the hourly chart, XBR has crossed above MA-20 at $89.24 and MA-50 at $88.19, with price remaining above MA-200 at $86.76. The daily Ichimoku Kijun sits at $88.97 and serves as immediate support. Momentum indicators are strong: MACD and ADX both show Buy signals, RSI reads at 65.23, indicating bullish bias but approaching overbought territory, and CCI also signals Buy. While Bull/Bear Power points to clear buyer dominance, Stochastic RSI remains Neutral and the Awesome Oscillator is also neutral, tempering the overextended tone. Intraday volatility is moderate, with price action hugging session highs.

Breakout risk grows as range boundaries define near-term outlook

Looking ahead, XBR is expected to trade within a range of $89.02 to $91.62 over the next sessions. An upward breakout beyond $91.62 would likely extend the bullish rally, while a move below $88.97 would expose the asset to short-term downside risk. If price remains within the projected band, a phase of sideways consolidation is favored.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Brent crude supported by strong macro and sentiment drivers. Ongoing geopolitical volatility is keeping upside momentum intact above key technical levels. Market participants remain highly sensitive to regional developments, which may prolong bullish pressure. He expects the risk premium to persist as long as supply fears remain central. "Brent crude remains well positioned, and any further escalation in the Middle East could quickly propel prices beyond $91.62," says the expert.

Earlier, analysts noted that heightened U.S.-Iran tensions and associated military actions had fueled a spike in oil prices and increased inflation risks for global markets. The current technical setup suggests a sustained upside bias for Brent crude, with a potential bullish breakout if $91.62 is cleared in the near term.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.