Brent crude price forecast: $102.41 support in focus as XBR trades flat

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Brent crude dips 0.77% to $105.21

Highlights

The US administration is considering easing sanctions on shadow-fleet oil tankers to boost global shipping capacity and mitigate high oil and freight costs.
Global crude supply could increase if shipping bottlenecks are reduced, with Middle East maritime risks remaining a secondary influence near term.
Brent trades in a sideways consolidation with ongoing seller pressure, projected to range between $102.41 and $108.01 over the next several sessions.

Supply outlook shifts as US weighs easing tanker sanctions

The US administration is reportedly considering the easing of sanctions on shadow-fleet oil tankers to expand available shipping capacity and address elevated freight and petroleum costs, according to Grafa. This regulatory shift could facilitate increased flows of crude oil globally by removing bottlenecks in maritime logistics, potentially impacting the overall supply and cost environment for Brent crude. Ongoing Middle East maritime risks remain part of the backdrop but are secondary in shaping the immediate supply narrative.

Mixed downside momentum with oversold signals and technical barriers

On the H4 timeframe, XBR is positioned below the MA-20 at $105.65 but remains above the MA-50 at $104.77, while the MA-200 on the daily chart offers a deeper support line at $93.16. The Ichimoku Kijun at $105.36 marks a near-term resistance level. Oscillator readings show mixed momentum: RSI sits at 35.01, pointing to ongoing selling bias, with Stochastic RSI, CCI, and Bull/Bear Power all reinforcing oversold conditions. The MACD remains neutral, ADX signals a sell impulse, and the Awesome Oscillator confirms ongoing downward momentum.

Consolidation expected as news and resistance shape direction

In the short term, XBR is projected to trade within a $102.41 to $108.01 volatility band. With a 68% probability assigned to an upward move, the base case scenario is one of price consolidation as the market digests recent news and technical divergences. An upward break above the $105.36 resistance could see XBR targeting the upper end of the current range, while a move below support risks a drop toward $102.41.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Brent crude stabilizing within its current range after recent technical weakness and muted price action. He notes that potential US regulatory easing on shadow-fleet tankers is a key factor for supply, but technicals show persistent selling pressure and mixed momentum. The analyst remains cautious given the unsustained moves above near-term resistance. "Base case is sideways consolidation for Brent as long as prices stay beneath $105.36 — I stay defensive unless that level breaks convincingly."

Previously it was reported that discussions on easing U.S. restrictions for Russian oil tankers raised expectations of greater flexibility in global crude transportation and potential pressure on Brent prices. The current market context adds a technical dimension, with Brent crude consolidating near resistance and traders advised to monitor the $105.36 level as a trigger for renewed upward momentum or potential downside risk.

Source of Data: XBR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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