Citigroup cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum forecasts amid U.S. regulatory uncertainty

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Sergey Shendetskyi

17.03.2026

Citigroup cuts Bitcoin and Ethereum forecasts amid U.S. regulatory uncertainty — Citigroup cuts crypto forecasts amid uncertainty

Citigroup has revised its outlook for major crypto assets, pointing to slowing legislative progress in the United States as a factor weighing on market momentum. The delay reflects prolonged debates over regulation, which investors had expected to move faster.

Against this backdrop, expectations for institutional inflows via ETFs are becoming less predictable. Market participants, according to Reuters, are beginning to price in a more cautious scenario.

Forecast cuts and market scenarios

The bank lowered its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $112,000 from $143,000, and Ethereum to $3,175 from $4,304. The revision reflects more conservative expectations for demand growth.

“Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but ⁠the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” said Citi strategist Alex Saunders.

Citi outlines several scenarios. In a recessionary case, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. In a more optimistic scenario driven by stronger demand, Bitcoin could rise to $165,000 and Ethereum to $4,488.

The bank also noted: “ETH will be especially sensitive to user activity metrics, which have been weak recently, but stablecoin and tokenization ‌trends ⁠may increase interest and usage.”

Legislative risks and political factors

A key driver behind the revised outlook is the stalled progress of U.S. crypto market structure legislation. The CLARITY Act faces disagreements, particularly around stablecoin regulation.

The bill requires support from at least seven Democratic senators, but consensus remains elusive. Some lawmakers are pushing for additional restrictions, including limits on public officials’ involvement in crypto projects.

Against this backdrop, Citi expects sideways movement. “Bitcoin is likely ⁠to range-trade anticipating legislative news flow with (about) $70,000 an important level representing the pre-U.S. election price,” analysts said.

Why it matters

Regulation remains a key driver of institutional adoption. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs previously acted as a major catalyst, and further regulatory clarity could extend this effect.

For now, uncertainty is prompting large investors to remain cautious. Banks and asset managers continue to wait for clearer rules before expanding their exposure to digital assets.

At the same time, long-term drivers remain intact. Tokenization, the growth of stablecoins, and broader blockchain integration into financial systems continue to support demand. Much now depends on political decisions rather than technological progress.

Earlier reports noted that Citigroup maintains a buy rating on Strategy (MSTR, formerly MicroStrategy) despite Bitcoin’s volatility. The bank continues to view the company’s BTC-focused model positively, even as similar firms reported unrealized losses during the recent market downturn. This confirms that long-term institutional interest in Bitcoin remains intact despite current risks.

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