XRP price prediction: Bears keep control as XRP fights to hold $2

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XRP sellers maintain control

Highlights

- XRP trades near $2.09 as repeated rebounds fail.

- Spot flows show another $1.5 million outflow.

- Open interest drops 4.37 percent as longs churn.

The tone of the chart and flows suggests endurance rather than recovery, leaving XRP dependent on the $2 support zone to avoid a deeper breakdown.

Downtrend strengthens as XRP stays trapped below key moving averages

The daily structure remains firmly bearish, defined by a descending trendline that has rejected every push higher for five months. Price has remained compressed beneath the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day EMAs, all sloping downward and clustered in a tight zone that acts as a hard ceiling rather than a foundation for reversal.

XRP Price Action (Source: TradingView)

Rejection between $2.40 and $2.50 confirmed this dynamic, reinforcing how difficult it has been for buyers to build continuity. The July breakout above $3 increasingly appears as an outlier, followed by months of unwinding without meaningful upside follow-through. As long as price remains below $2.30, the structure remains under clear bearish control.

Momentum reflects the same fatigue. RSI near the mid-40s shows neither oversold capitulation nor credible trend recovery, leaving the market in a neutral but heavy posture. Parabolic SAR has flipped back into sell-mode repeatedly, a signal that even shallow rallies fail to gain traction. The lack of impulse from trend indicators reinforces the fragility of every bounce.

Flows weaken as XRP struggles to hold the $2 support zone

Spot flows continue to highlight structural softness. December 5 netflows printed another negative result near minus $1.5 million, extending a multi-week pattern of steady outflows. This reflects methodical distribution rather than panic selling, but the implication remains the same: sustained upside requires fresh inflows, and those have not materialized since September.

Derivatives data shows churn rather than conviction. Open interest fell 4.37 percent while futures volume increased, a combination associated with position closure rather than new capital entering the market. Long/short ratios tilt toward speculative longs on major venues, with elevated top-trader exposure suggesting that late buyers may be getting trapped near resistance. Persistent short liquidations show that the downside has been slow and controlled rather than capitulation-driven.

The key battleground is the $2.00 region, a psychological and structural support that has repeatedly halted breakdown attempts since November. While buyers still defend the level, each rebound has weakened in quality. A clean loss of $2.00 exposes liquidity at $1.88, then $1.72, both tied to earlier breakout bases and summer accumulation pockets. Given fading momentum and persistent outflows, this scenario becomes more likely if macro risk sentiment deteriorates.

XRP needs a structural reclaim before sentiment can shift

For bulls, the path to recovery is clear but narrow. A sustained reclaim above $2.30 followed by acceptance above $2.5 would break the descending trendline and signal the first real structural shift in months. Without that, price action remains defensive, rotational, and vulnerable to renewed pressure.

XRP’s current narrative is one of resilience without dominance. The market is not collapsing, but neither is it attracting the type of structural demand that fuels sustained bull cycles. Until flows reverse and resistance levels break decisively, buyers remain in survival mode while sellers continue to control momentum.

Previously, we discussed that XRP’s failure to reclaim its moving-average cluster would leave the asset in a slow-grind downtrend defined by weak momentum and negative flows. The latest rejection near resistance confirms that the market remains in this phase, with $2.00 now the defining line between stabilization and renewed downside.

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