XRP price prediction: Testing $1.2363 resistance? XRP up 3.62%

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XRP jumps 3.62% today to $1.2278

Highlights

U.S. spot XRP ETFs began trading after Ripple and the SEC settled in August 2025, unlocking institutional demand and direct investment flows.
XRP's institutional profile rose further as NYSE Arca's approved multi-asset crypto ETF made it eligible for inclusion and expanded exposure.
Technicals show range-bound action with a projected $1.1819 to $1.2737 range and mixed momentum, favoring a 62% chance of upward movement.

Institutional demand expands as ETF approval follows regulatory settlement

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds began trading in the United States in November 2025 after Ripple and the U.S. SEC concluded a regulatory settlement in August, opening institutional channels for direct investment and increasing demand, according to events reported in the news background. The SEC's approval of NYSE Arca's multi-asset crypto ETF on June 15 further enhanced XRP's institutional appeal by making it an eligible component for the fund. Parallel to these advances, Ripple's cross-border payments system continues to attract market interest as a cost-efficient and fast alternative to traditional settlement networks, and the legacy impact of the extended SEC lawsuit continues to inform current structural flows and participation patterns.

Diverging momentum signals as resistance and exhaustion cap price action

On the hourly chart, XRP is positioned below the MA-20 but remains above the MA-50, while on the daily, it trades under the MA-200. Immediate resistance is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $1.2363. Oscillator signals are mixed: MACD maintains a strong buy bias, whereas ADX provides a sell signal indicative of limited trend strength. RSI is neutral with a slight positive tilt, Stoch RSI flags oversold conditions, and CCI prints a sell, denoting exhaustion among sellers. BBP signals intraday dominance by sellers, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral.

Range-bound bias persists as probabilities favor near-term advance

Over the next 2-3 trading days, XRP is projected to trade within a typical volatility band of $1.1819 to $1.2737. Forecast scenarios assign a 62% probability to an advance, with a 38% chance of a downward move. The base case expects XRP to remain range-bound, but a bullish breakout could see price push above $1.2363 resistance; conversely, a decline below $1.1819 support may develop if selling resumes.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees XRP's advance supported by the official launch of spot ETFs and increased institutional access. He notes that technical signals and historic SEC headwinds still limit a clear upside trend. Cautious sentiment dominates until $1.2363 resistance is reclaimed decisively. "My approach remains defensive — unless XRP closes above key resistance and confirms new inflows, I do not trust the recent uptick."

Earlier, analysts noted that XRP was experiencing a short-term positive trend supported by institutional inflows and regulatory advances, despite technical signals suggesting caution. The current analysis adds greater nuance, highlighting mixed momentum and structural shifts post-ETF launch, with attention now focused on the $1.2363 resistance as a pivotal level for confirming any sustained bullish breakout.

Source of Data: XRP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.