Bitcoin price prediction: BTC trapped in 4-day range ahead of Fed rate decision

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BTC consolidation ahead of the FOMC meeting.

Highlights

Bitcoin trades inside four-day consolidation as traders balance bullish structure against broader bearish flows
BTC sentiment improves as Fear and Greed Index climbs from 16 to 26
Open interest steady at $28 billion reflects muted conviction behind bullish range breakout.

The four-day price stagnation reflects market anxiety around the Federal Reserve’s next move. Despite consensus around a rate cut this week, uncertainty surrounds how aggressively future easing will proceed. This policy pause has left Bitcoin’s December performance effectively flat. No decisive shift has turned the month into either a clear gain or loss.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Aug - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Derivatives data adds another layer of tension. The long-to-short ratio surged from 1.6 to above 2.0, the highest since early December, suggesting more traders are betting on a bullish breakout. Yet open interest has remained stagnant near $28 billion. This split implies elevated expectations without strong capital follow-through. On the 4-hour chart, the 20, 50, and 100 EMAs have all flattened around $90,000, while RSI hovers around 50. Both confirm the ongoing market indecision.

Bitcoin sentiment improves as Fear and Greed Index rises from extreme fear

A bullish market structure shift emerged on the 4-hour chart earlier last week. The market structure shift hints that price could expand higher and push past the top of the current range. Such a breakout would align neatly with rate cut expectations and may drive Bitcoin closer to reclaiming the $100,000 psychological level. Sentiment indicators support this path. The Binance Fear and Greed Index has risen from extreme fear at 16 last week to 26 now. That’s a 10% improvement in just days, driven by the anticipation of rate-cut easing.

Still, daily orderflow leans bearish. Since October, Bitcoin’s price has followed a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, backed by bearish alignment across daily EMAs. The 50-day EMA currently offers resistance near $97,000 while the 100-day EMA stands around $102,000. Hence, if a bullish breakout from a prior 4-day consolidation gains momentum, these technical resistance indicators could cap further upward attempts.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin held steady above $91,000 after weekend liquidations cleared both long and short positions. Traders focused on the $92,000 breakout zone as new long positions formed while shorts stayed vulnerable.

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