Toncoin holds steady as persistent selling pressure dominates despite slight intraday strength

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Toncoin rises 0.71% today to $1.48

Highlights

Toncoin user adoption and transaction volume have shifted recently, indicating changing network activity and impacting overall demand for the asset.
Protocol upgrades focused on technology and security are underway in the Toncoin ecosystem, with potential effects on market sentiment and network resilience.
Strategic partnerships, regulatory developments, and trading by major holders are significantly shaping Toncoin's market dynamics and investor perception.

Network engagement shifts and protocol upgrades reshape Toncoin sentiment

Recent updates in the Toncoin ecosystem reflect changes in user adoption and transaction volume, highlighting shifts in network activity and overall demand. Protocol upgrades focused on technology and security remain notable, with potential to influence market sentiment. Strategic partnerships, regulatory developments, and trading activity by major holders are also shaping dynamics around Toncoin.

Bearish momentum persists as major resistance holds and support weakens

The nearest dynamic resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level ($1.561), while no immediate dynamic support is identified above the current price. Momentum indicators point to continued bearishness, with both the MACD and ADX on the daily timeframe registering sell signals, highlighting persistent downward trend strength. The RSI (39.7 D1 and 28.5 W1) and CCI (-103.6) indicate the market is in or approaching oversold territory, yet the Bull/Bear Power suggests seller dominance intraday (bbp: sell). There was a slight gap up at the open, and with the current price near the upper end of today's range ($1.473 — $1.489), intraday volatility remains low and the session shows mild strength after the open. However, oscillators and momentum indicators offer mixed signals, as short-term support from the HMA contrasts with overbought readings on the H4 Stochastic RSI and persistent bearish sentiment on higher timeframes.

Downside risk prevails as indicators warn of likely further declines

For the coming five trading days, the expected price range is adjusted to $1.40 — $1.60, reflecting a volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), given persistent sell signals across weekly momentum and trend indicators, suggesting a further decline is more likely. Baseline scenario: the price consolidates between $1.40 and $1.60. A breakout above $1.56 (Kijun resistance) could open space toward $1.60 or higher, while a failure to hold $1.40 may accelerate downside momentum toward new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent bearish momentum in Toncoin. He notes that major moving averages and momentum indicators show sellers remain firmly in control. Kharitonov is critical of the current setup and maintains a defensive view until price reclaims resistance at $1.56. "Base case remains sideways or lower unless bulls retake $1.56 — caution is warranted here."

Previously it was reported that Toncoin is trading below key moving averages with technical indicators such as MACD, ADX, and RSI all signaling persistent selling pressure and oversold conditions. The asset remains rangebound between $1.40 and $1.60, with limited upside potential unless a decisive break above resistance occurs.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.