Bitcoin price prediction: BTC early 2026 rally stalls as spot ETFs post outflow

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BTC holds 50-day EMA amid ETF outflow

Highlights

Bitcoin consolidates between $92,200 and $93,000 after a sharp 1.6% Asian session drop
Tuesday’s $243M ETF outflows erased gains as FBTC and GBTC led the selloff
50-day EMA holds as support as BTC recovery eyes return to $94,800

The shift in price tone follows a notable five-day rally that opened 2026 on a strong footing. From January 1 to January 5, Bitcoin climbed over 8% from $87,400 to hit a 1-month high of $94,800. This impressive stretch marked a breakout from the December range and was bolstered by strong inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs during the first two trading days of the year. That enthusiasm, however, stalled sharply on Tuesday.

Bitcoin price dynamics (Nov 2025 - Jan 2026). Source: TradingView

On January 6, Bitcoin experienced a significant selloff that erased much of Monday’s gains. Price dropped as low as $91,300 during the U.S. session, driven by net outflows from several spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to SoSoValue data, Tuesday saw $243 million in net outflows, ending the positive streak of inflows seen earlier in the year. Fidelity’s FBTC led the retreat with over $312 million in outflows, followed by Grayscale’s GBTC and Bitcoin Mini Trust. Although BlackRock’s IBIT absorbed $228.66 million in inflows, it was not enough to offset broader selling across other funds.

50-day EMA bounce signals uptrend not broken despite recent sharp ETF pullback

Despite the ETF-related pullback, Bitcoin bounced off the 50-day EMA, which acted as strong technical support. Price recovered into the $93,700 zone by the Asian open on Wednesday, suggesting the broader uptrend is not yet invalidated. The ability to hold above the 50-day EMA reinforces the idea that the recent decline is a retracement rather than a reversal.

For now, all eyes are on whether Bitcoin can break out from the current consolidation between $92,200 and $93,000. A move above the 50 EMA on the 1-hour chart could reopen the path toward retesting $94,800. On the flip side, failure to hold $92,200 would expose the 50-day EMA again and raise the risk of a deeper pullback. Direction will likely hinge on whether ETF flows return to positive territory or continue to weigh on sentiment.

In recent analysis, we discussed how Bitcoin held near $93,900 after a breakout rally lifted its year-to-date gain. We also noted how the overbought 4-hour RSI, a long-to-short ratio at 1.3, and open interest at $31.4 billion together signaled fading bullish momentum.

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