Hyperliquid price prediction: Will bearish momentum persist? HYPE falls 12.14%

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Hyperliquid slides 12.14% today

Highlights

Hyperliquid's HIP-3 expansion in early 2026 enabled tokenized trading of commodities, equities, and fiat pairs, driving daily turnover to over $1.3 billion in silver and gold perpetual futures.
The protocol boosted its deflationary model, dedicating 97% of fees to HYPE buybacks and sharply curtailing team token unlocks following a $320 million distribution in January.
HYPE trades at $28.92, above MA-20 and MA-50 but well below MA-200, with support near $27.68 and a probable stabilization range of $28.50–$30.25 as selling pressure intensifies.

Surging volumes and buybacks shape bullish flows after major unlocks

Hyperliquid has significantly expanded its HIP-3 framework in early 2026, now supporting tokenized trading for commodities, equities, and fiat pairs, resulting in surging trading volumes such as over $1.3 billion in daily silver and gold perpetual futures turnover. The protocol strengthened its deflationary buyback model by allocating 97% of fees for HYPE repurchases, while also sharply reducing scheduled team token unlocks to limit market impact after a major January distribution worth approximately $320 million. Canadian institutional investor HYLQ Strategy Corp. increased its stake through a targeted purchase of 34,597.44 HYPE tokens at an average price of $25.35 amid robust open interest above $8 billion and consistent daily volumes over $9 billion.

Bullish momentum tested by overbought signals and volatile drop

HYPE is trading above its MA-20 and MA-50 but remains well below the MA-200, indicating a bullish bias in short and medium timeframes yet clear long-term resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun at $27.68 forms immediate support, while the MA-50 near the current price acts as first resistance. Momentum signals are mixed: D1 MACD is neutral and the ADX suggests a buy bias with moderate trend strength. Both the RSI and Commodity Channel Index are overbought, corroborated by Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power readings, signaling dominant but likely peaking buying pressure; however, the Awesome Oscillator does not confirm a directional trend. Today's session opened with a gap down and a pronounced 12.14% loss, highlighting heavy selling pressure and high intraday volatility, which diverges from prior bullish D1 signals.

Downside favored as volatility and resistance limit upside potential

For the coming week, HYPE is expected to oscillate within a $28.50 – $30.25 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of further gains is low (under 20%), making a downside move the more likely near-term scenario. The base case anticipates stabilization in this range as the market absorbs recent swings. A daily close above $30.25 could spark short-term buying, while a drop below $28.50 may lead to a more significant retracement toward the next major support area.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Hyperliquid maintaining some technical strength, but notes the long-term trend is still bearish. He points out that the deflationary tokenomics and institutional inflows have not prevented heavy selling and volatile price action. Kharitonov is skeptical about further near-term upside given overbought signals and downside risk. "Unless HYPE decisively reclaims $30.25, any rally looks unsustainable and defensive positioning is warranted."

Last time, analysts noted that Hyperliquid (HYPE) trades above its short- and medium-term moving averages but remains below long-term resistance, while technical momentum is mixed with overbought readings clashing against the day's sharp decline and elevated volatility. Although recent supply curbs and new platform features have improved sentiment, oscillators and momentum indicators are diverging, suggesting caution as buyers face potential near-term consolidation.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.