Weekly forecast: Bitcoin price determined by US Congress actions

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Weekly forecast bitcoin price

Highlights

The cryptocurrency market drop on January 31 was the second most destructive since October 2025.
After Bitcoin fell to $78,000, many are warning of a shift into a prolonged bearish phase.
This week will be critical for Bitcoin’s price if the U.S. Congress resolves the political crisis.

The partial government shutdown triggered accelerated risk-asset sell-offs, including cryptocurrencies, with weekend trading amplifying volatility and causing a cascade of liquidations totaling $2.5 billion, most of which were Bitcoin and Ethereum longs.

Cointelegraph cites data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which shows that Bitcoin’s realized price on the spot market resulted in losses for investors holding BTC for 12 to 18 months. The platform describes this as “a shift from normal corrections to structural bearish regimes, rather than short-term pullbacks.”

Other analysts also warn of a prolonged bearish phase, with Bitcoin potentially heading toward $50,000.

Next week will be critical for Bitcoin, as U.S. lawmakers are expected to vote on controversial funding measures on Monday to end the shutdown.

If successful, this could trigger a strong rebound above $80,000–$82,000 and potentially a retest of resistance at $85,000–$88,000. A breakout above these levels could attract algorithmic buying and restore Bitcoin to late January levels. However, given the contentious nature of U.S. congressional negotiations, the likelihood of this scenario is limited.

Lawmakers’ speed directly impacts the markets.

The unresolved issues in the House include funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and reforms to the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), whose actions have sparked widespread protests. Democrats insist on accountability measures, including banning agent disguises, mandatory body cameras, and limits on independent raids without local police involvement.

Discussion of these issues could take several days, during which the crypto market may continue trending downward if no other significant macroeconomic catalysts appear.

BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

The base scenario assumes Bitcoin will trade in a narrow range of $75,000–$82,000, consolidating after the sharp decline.

The worst-case scenario involves a break below $75,000, with targets near $70,000–$68,000, driven by stop-loss triggers and ETF outflows. This scenario is more likely if the political crisis persists for another week.

As we wrote, Bitcoin falls below $80,000 as geopolitical shock triggers mass sell-off

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