Toncoin climbs today: Key reasons behind the rally

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Toncoin surges 10.27% today to $1.396

Highlights

Toncoin’s blockchain ecosystem expanded via exclusive integration into Telegram, which has reached 1 billion monthly active users, amplifying network exposure.
TON Wallet activity surged past 100 million sign-ups and 35 million active accounts, reflecting accelerating user adoption and ecosystem expansion.
TON trades at $1.396 below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with bearish momentum and a key resistance at $1.532; downside risk remains elevated.

Ecosystem expansion accelerates as Telegram integration deepens

Toncoin's blockchain ecosystem continues to expand with its exclusive integration into Telegram, now reaching 1 billion monthly active users. The TON Wallet surpassed 100 million sign-ups and 35 million active accounts, highlighting growing user adoption. Telegram's launch of Cocoon, a decentralized AI compute platform enabling GPU owners to earn TON, further diversifies the network's infrastructure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights persistent weakness as Toncoin trades below all key moving averages. He notes that deep oversold signals and strong daily volatility offer little real sign of reversal. Kharitonov is critical of the ongoing bearish structure and doubts a quick upside despite today's intraday strength. Even with the Telegram-linked expansions and ecosystem growth, he sees this as insufficient to change momentum. "Until buyers reclaim levels above $1.532, I see ongoing risk and remain skeptical of short-term rallies in TON," he concludes.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, focuses on Toncoin’s fundamental growth potential. He believes increasing adoption through Telegram’s billion-user base and new initiatives like Cocoon signal powerful network effects. Karapetjanc sees expanding wallet activity and decentralized infrastructure as laying groundwork for further institutional involvement. Forward-looking, he expects this momentum to eventually support price recovery. "With such robust integration and real user metrics, I anticipate new upside opportunities as the bullish structure remains fundamentally intact," he says.

Bearish trend dominates despite oversold signals and high volatility

TON remains below all major moving averages (MA-20, MA-50, MA-200), emphasizing persistent short-, medium-, and long-term bearish trends. Dynamic resistance is marked by the Kijun at $1.532, and there is little sign of reversal. Mixed momentum indicators show bearish signals from both MACD and ADX. However, deep oversold readings from RSI (28.2), Stoch RSI (12.05), and CCI (–131.4) suggest a potential for near-term stabilization, with BBP confirming continued seller dominance. The price sits near the daily high of the $1.124 – $1.42 range, reflecting pronounced volatility and divergence from broader trend signals. The awesome oscillator remains neutral.

Previously it was reported that Toncoin remains in a firm downtrend, with price trading below all major moving averages and exhibiting persistent selling pressure near the $1.25 support zone. Technical indicators, including a near-oversold RSI and failed attempts to reclaim resistance levels around $1.35–$1.45, reinforce a bearish outlook unless broader sentiment or volume improve.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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