XMR holds below major resistance with rangebound action expected as regulatory pressure fuels bearish sentiment

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Monero rises 0.30% this week

Highlights

Monero remains below key moving averages—MA-20 ($369.94), MA-50 ($453.90), and MA-200 ($363.50)—reflecting persistent downward pressure across all timeframes.
Technical momentum is weak as daily MACD signals a strong sell, ADX is subdued at 21.19, and daily RSI sits at a bearish 36.52.
Monero is likely to trade in a $300–$365 range over the next five days, with less than a 20% probability of price increases and greater downside risk.

Regulatory delistings fuel shift to DEXs as darknet adoption grows

Monero faces ongoing regulatory pressure as major exchanges like Binance and Kraken have delisted the asset, prompting a migration of trading activity to decentralized exchanges, P2P platforms, and atomic swaps. Chain analysis from TRM Labs revealed that nearly 48% of darknet markets launched in 2025 now support only XMR for payments, underscoring its growing dominance among privacy coins. Monero’s on-chain activity remains robust compared to pre-2022 levels, and a recent report highlighted increased adoption in dark market environments.

Bearish momentum persists as weekly indicators signal further downside

On the weekly timeframe, XMR remains firmly under its MA-20 ($369.94), MA-50 ($453.90), and MA-200 ($363.50), confirming the lack of upward momentum and reinforcing a bearish structure. Nearest dynamic resistance is found at the Ichimoku Kijun ($406.75), while the absence of support from these W1 MAs increases the risk of continued downside. Weekly RSI signals further weakness, with oversold readings in additional W1 oscillators, maintaining bearish momentum throughout the past week.

Rangebound trade expected as bearish bias dominates the coming week

Over the next week, XMR is expected to trade within a $300 to $365 band, with a low probability (less than 20%) of a sustained rebound. Most indicators point to continued rangebound, choppy action, marked by persistent bearish signals from weekly RSI, moving averages, and MACD. If sellers continue to dominate, the price could break below the $300 support area, while any bullish scenario would require a firm move above resistance near $365–$380.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees Monero continuing to struggle under sustained bearish pressure this week, with price locked beneath all major weekly moving averages and key resistance firmly overhead. He notes that ongoing regulatory crackdowns and exchange delistings keep sentiment defensive, despite growing adoption within darknet markets. Mehta expects further rangebound, choppy movement between $300 and $365, and sees no catalyst for a decisive trend shift unless resistance near $365–$380 breaks convincingly. "With momentum and macro flows aligned against XMR, I’ll stay patient and watch for a true breakout or deeper test of support before taking action."

Previously it was reported that Monero is trading below major moving averages, reflecting renewed downside pressure as momentum indicators such as the RSI suggest short-term oversold conditions. Technical resistance remains near the 200-period EMA while expanding volume during the decline points to active repositioning rather than stable consolidation.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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