BTC gains 3.22% as price stays below MA-20 and MA-50

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Bitcoin rises 3.22% over the week

Highlights

Bitcoin trades well below mid-term moving averages, indicating sustained downward pressure despite a modest bounce from oversold lows.
Major technical indicators show oversold conditions with negative momentum, reinforcing a bearish outlook for the near term.
Expected trading range for the coming week is $59,000 to $74,400, with consolidation likely and increased risk of testing lower supports.

Institutional inflows and regulatory news shape sentiment despite uncertainties

US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted over $1 billion in inflows during the week, signaling continued institutional interest, even as some sessions saw outflows. Large holders increased their Bitcoin balances, indicating rising investor confidence despite ongoing regulatory and geopolitical uncertainty. Regulatory developments included New York granting Strike a BitLicense to provide Bitcoin-focused financial services, alongside legal and miner activity such as a US court freezing 70 BTC and miners liquidating over 15,000 BTC.

Persistent downside risk as technicals and momentum favor sellers this week

Weekly technical indicators continue to highlight downside risk. The price is firmly beneath key weekly moving averages (MA-20 and MA-50), while the MA-200 supports from below. Momentum remains negative, with the weekly MACD and ADX confirming prevailing selling pressure. The RSI on the weekly timeframe lingers near 30, the Stochastic RSI is below 20, and the Commodity Channel Index remains deeply negative — all signs of an oversold market. Bull/Bear Power also supports sustained bearish control. Despite the modest recovery, the price remains in the lower portion of the weekly range as volatility holds at 13.83%.

Sideways range and downside bias expected in the coming week

For the next 5–7 trading days, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate within a range of $59,000 to $74,400, roughly ±11% from the current level. The likelihood of a further move higher is under 20%, as none of the primary weekly momentum indicators show bullish reversals. The baseline scenario is sideways trading with a bias to retest support near $59,000. A clear break above $74,000 would be needed for a bullish reversal, but the prevailing momentum favors further downside risk as sellers maintain control.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees a market searching for direction as Bitcoin’s rally pauses beneath key resistance levels. He notes that institutional inflows and rising large holder balances this week reflect improving sentiment, yet technical signals continue to reinforce downside risk and a lack of bullish momentum. Over the coming week, Turakhiya expects the $59,000 to $74,400 range to contain price action, with sellers likely to test support before buyers return. He believes the current backdrop calls for patience as volatility remains elevated and no clear reversal is evident. "As long as Bitcoin stays under $74,000 and key momentum signals remain bearish, I’m waiting for confirmation before leaning bullish this week."

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin trades just above its short-term moving average but remains below its medium- and long-term averages, with persistent bearish pressure confirmed by negative momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX. Resistance is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun, while support is likely near recent lows, and overall technicals suggest ongoing volatility and further downside risk amid strengthening intraday selling.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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