Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict — Bitcoin drops 4.24%

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Bitcoin slides 4.24% to $67,624 today

Highlights

Escalating Iran-U.S.-Israel tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have lifted global oil prices, intensifying inflation risks and macro uncertainty for Bitcoin.
U.S. regulatory scrutiny is rising as authorities investigate crypto's use in sanctions evasion, with pending legislation creating further legal ambiguity for institutional flows.
Bitcoin trades below key technical support, exhibits strong downside momentum, and is expected to fluctuate between $60,800 and $73,600 with a high probability of further decline.

Geopolitical risks and regulatory crackdowns drive institutional Bitcoin caution

In the first week of March 2026, renewed geopolitical volatility from the Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have increased global oil prices, fueling inflationary pressure and deepening macroeconomic uncertainty. These events have intensified scrutiny of Bitcoin as both a speculative asset and a financial tool for sanctioned states like Iran, driving U.S. regulatory attention to crypto mining and transaction flows used to bypass international restrictions. U.S. authorities are actively investigating links between crypto exchanges, illicit capital movement, and terror financing, while institutional Bitcoin flows are exhibiting heightened sensitivity to ETF outflows and shifting Federal Reserve policy on interest rates. Ongoing regulatory uncertainty—highlighted by the pending CLARITY Act and concerns over stricter global compliance—threatens to impact the asset's liquidity, legal clarity, and institutional adoption as external threats escalate. Rising geopolitical tensions, regulatory enforcement, and potential for accelerated sanctions remain the most significant external risks to Bitcoin's accessibility and mainstream financial integration.

Daily bearish momentum intensifies as volatility and selling dominate action

Momentum signals remain bearish on the daily chart, with the MACD and Average Directional Index highlighting sustained downward pressure. The Relative Strength Index backs up this weakness by indicating selling momentum, while the Stochastic RSI is neutral but has oversold readings on several shorter timeframes. The Commodity Channel Index offers a mild buy signal, but the Bull/Bear Power shows overbought conditions earlier, though intraday readings indicate persistent seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator supports the broader negative trend. Today, Bitcoin opened with a notable gap down from $70,619.99 to $68,114.02, recently falling 4.24% and now resting near the low end of its daily range. Volatility is high, and the tone after the open remains pressured, with momentum and intraday action clearly aligned to the downside.

Sideways trading likely as downside risk remains elevated amid weak momentum

Looking ahead, the next five trading days are likely to see prices fluctuating between $60,800 and $73,600, reflecting both the high intraday volatility and prevailing bearish sentiment. The probability of further decline is very high (more than 80%), while a rebound is much less likely. The baseline scenario calls for a sideways consolidation within this volatility band relative to current levels. A bullish case would require a decisive move above the immediate resistance at $68,280, which could open the way for a test of the upper range near $73,600, while a clear break below $60,800 would confirm a bearish scenario and expose Bitcoin to accelerating downside risk given the weak momentum on both daily and weekly charts.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees ongoing seller pressure and high volatility for Bitcoin amid escalating geopolitical risks and regulatory scrutiny. He believes the asset remains vulnerable to downside due to weak momentum and uncertainty stemming from U.S. enforcement and global macro factors. Despite these headwinds, the expert maintains a constructive bias and expects short-term consolidation unless immediate resistance is reclaimed. In his view, institutional adoption and regulatory clarity will be decisive for upside potential. "While external risks remain, I see this volatile phase as an opportunity for disciplined investors who focus on both macro trends and regulatory evolution."

Last time, analysts noted that retail investors continued accumulating BTC despite profit-taking from larger holders, resulting in persistent selling pressure and elevated market fear indicators. Technical signals suggest BTC is struggling to stabilize above key support, with sentiment driven lower by ETF outflows and ongoing uncertainty around support in the $67,000–$68,000 range.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.