Ark Invest: Quantum threat to Bitcoin remains long-term risk
Investment firm Ark Invest stated that most of the BTC supply is already protected from potential threats posed by quantum computing. According to research by Ark Invest and crypto-financial company Unchained, about 65.4% of BTC is not vulnerable to quantum computer attacks.
However, roughly 34.6% of the supply could still be potentially vulnerable, according to Ark Invest.
These are coins stored on older types of addresses. In particular, around 5 million BTC (25%) are considered potentially movable due to address reuse. Another 1.7 million BTC (8.6%) are held in early P2PK addresses that directly reveal the public key.
When quantum computers could threaten BTC
The study notes that breaking BTC cryptography with quantum computers would require significant technological progress. Attacking elliptic curve cryptography (ECC) would require roughly 2,330 logical qubits and billions of quantum operations.
According to Ark Invest analysts, such capabilities are still far away. Rather than an instant breakthrough, quantum technology is expected to develop gradually. This would allow the BTC network to receive early warning signals in advance. The research suggests that the first real threats may only emerge in the mid-2030s.
Quantum risk is considered long-term
The report emphasizes that quantum computing remains a long-term risk rather than an immediate threat to the BTC network. Ark Invest outlines five stages in the development of quantum technology, and only the final stage would allow cryptography to be broken faster than new BTC blocks are produced.
Until that point, the network would have enough time to prepare. The research also notes that developers could implement new security mechanisms ahead of time. As a result, the threat is considered manageable with proper preparation.
BTC could move to quantum-resistant cryptography
To protect the network in the future, the implementation of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) may be required. Among the potential solutions are ML-DSA schemes based on lattice cryptography and SLH-DSA schemes based on hash signatures. However, such changes would require updates to the BTC protocol.
Due to the decentralized structure of the network, such changes could be complex. They would require agreement from most participants through a soft fork. One proposed option is BIP-360, which introduces a new address format. However, experts note that this proposal is not yet a final solution for protecting BTC from quantum attacks.
Recently we wrote that investment firm Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, took advantage of the recent decline in crypto-related stocks and increased its positions in Coinbase and Robinhood. On Tuesday, the ARKK, ARKW, and ARKF funds purchased 22,452 shares of Coinbase worth just over $4 million.
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