Scaramucci: Institutional demand did not break Bitcoin cycle
The current Bitcoin drawdown can be explained by the classic four-year cycle. This is the view of Anthony Scaramucci, head of SkyBridge Capital.
According to him, early investors and large holders played a key role. Many of them began taking profits around the $100,000 level. This level became a psychological exit point for part of the market. As a result, selling pressure increased. Despite inflows of institutional capital, the cycle has not disappeared. It has only become less volatile.
Institutional investors softened the market, but did not change it
Scaramucci noted that ETFs and institutional investments have reduced the sharpness of price swings. However, they have not eliminated the fundamental market dynamics. Moreover, investors’ belief in the cycle itself reinforces its effect.
This creates a so-called self-fulfilling prophecy. In 2025, the market expected a rise to $150,000 amid Donald Trump’s policies and support for the crypto industry. Instead, a sharp reversal occurred. After reaching $126,000, Bitcoin fell to $60,000. This broke the optimistic consensus.
The market moves against investor expectations
According to Scaramucci, the market often moves contrary to mass expectations. He cited 2023 as an example, when growth began amid apathy following the FTX collapse. The current situation is similar — sentiment remains cautious. This suggests that the accumulation phase is still ongoing.
At the same time, BTC has already dropped below $69,000 amid global instability. Pressure is increasing due to the conflict in the Middle East. Equity markets are also showing weakness, including a 1.3% drop in the S&P 500. This strengthens the correlation between crypto and traditional assets.
Potential risks and recovery scenario
Analysts allow for further declines in Bitcoin’s price. If the correlation with the stock market persists, the drop could reach 50% in 2026. However, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Scaramucci expects the start of a new bull cycle closer to the fourth quarter of 2026. Until then, the market is likely to remain volatile and unstable. The current correction is viewed as typical for previous cycles. Historically, such periods lay the foundation for the next growth phase.
Recently we wrote that spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States are showing the longest streak of capital inflows in 2026. Over the past four weeks, funds have recorded cumulative inflows of around $2 billion.
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